BNP Paribas do not believe in conspiracy agreements against the dollar

Forex strategists of BNP Paribas do not believe in the conspiracy theory that on the meeting of the leaders of the Big ten in February it was decided to countries to limit the strengthening of the dollar, or at least not seek to devalue their own currencies.

Analysts remind that the European Central Bank did not hesitate to cut rates in March and later its governor Mario Draghi emphasized that the institution is ready to adopt further stimulus if necessary. In Japan, representatives of Regulators also convince investors that it is possible to reduce rates if the dynamics of exchange rates goes out of control. Interventions in the market are also not excluded.

Ultimately, however, whatever was discussed at the meeting in February, the fact is that the US dollar weakened significantly, which contributed to the restoration of a number of assets, not least - commodity. And fears of imminent devaluation in China are also dispelled, which supported stock markets and credit instruments.

According to analysts at BNP Paribas, by examining the ratio between risk and expected return, the most appropriate seems the bet on the eventual rise of the dollar against the commodity currencies - such as the pair USD/CAD. The dynamics of the dollar against the currencies of financing, the euro and the yen is not so unambiguous, but probably the strengthening of the dollar will not last long and it will reverse it's direction amid an escape from risk.

By BNP Paribas expect levels of EUR/USD at 1.16 by the end of June, while USD/JPY forecast is for 108.00.