By SEB forecast GBP/USD at 1.49 by the end of the second quarter

The high volatility of the pound and its decline for this year are associated with increased risk premium that investors demand for the outcome of the referendum in the UK for further membership in the European Union.
If the country decides to leave the union, questions arise about what will replace the membership in this community, as uncertainty for sure would have a negative impact on the British economy.
The latest opinion polls show that Britons still prefer to maintain the status quo, and it seems, that markets like it.
The high risk premium still remains and if Britain stays in the EU, we should expect growth of the pound, say analysts.
When the subject of a referendum in the UK remains in the background, investors will redirect their focus again on the British economy, and in particular the policy of the Bank of England.
The latest data on inflation and wage dynamics, however, showed no signs of price increases, so experts expect an increase in interest rates in the country by next year.