Thursday, 1 December 2016

Another devaluation of the RMB: Causes and Consequences (Part 3)

As for the strengthening of the internal market, then China will definitely have something to brag about. A recent day of sales in China, last November 11 (the so-called Single's Day, an analogue of the Western Black Friday) brought retail chains in China about 17.7 billion dollars, far exceeding the totals in the US Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday in 2015 (when they were not reached 14 bn). Of course, much of this success belongs to China's advantage in population - 1.5 billion people probably will buy more than 300 million. However, in 2015 Single's Day brought the Chinese traders about 14.6 billion dollars - which means, that in 2016 the Chinese consumer activity increased by 1/6, while the boldest forecasts for Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday in the US this year cannot exceed 15 billion. Of course, for the market it is a clear signal that China is a growing market for the long term, however, whether US and European investors will hear it - it is a big question. While they prefer to ignore the investment instruments, related both to the Chinese currency, and with Chinese companies (with the exception, perhaps, of bonds, although the announced issue of Eurobonds of a number of international Chinese companies do not enjoy special demand). For now the Chinese authorities manage to keep the outflow of capital from the country under control, but recent events related to the foreign exchange value of the yuan, could put the effectiveness of external investment management of China under question.


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