Showing posts with label US bankruptcy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US bankruptcy. Show all posts

Friday, 23 December 2016

How likely is a bankruptcy of America? (Part 5)

A bankruptcy on US government debt is a serious threat to the economies of the world, but we do not have to be afraid of it any time soon. Now lenders are more concerned not so much of the size of public debt, as an  America's capability to service it. However, the difficulty can appear only in the event if one of the largest holders of US bonds will start to gradually get rid of them. This trend is already defined, but its pace is not sufficient for a soon detection of the debt crisis. In addition, the US dollar is right to retain the status of a "reserve currency" and get rid of this status would not be far-sighted decision amid world uncertainty.




Thursday, 22 December 2016

How likely is a bankruptcy of America? (Part 4)

But maybe it's not all so terrible? Technically America can pay off its debt, no matter how large it is, at any time. The thing is, that the very government debt is denominated in US dollars, which the Federal Reserve can print as much as necessary and pay. Of course, it will cause many other problems such as an increase in inflation and a removal of the dollar from the pedestal of the world's reserve currency. Yet in this way the debt can be paid off, and it gives hope to the creditors that the probability of a sudden default is very low.
Since the election of President Donald Trump appeared another alarming fact - yield of US Treasury rushed up and is now close to multi-year highs. This increased the cost of debt service, and one of the priorities of the new government should be the solution to this problem.


Wednesday, 21 December 2016

How likely is a bankruptcy of America? (Part 3)

Now the US national debt exceeds GDP. For clarity, it can be compared with the most difficult moments of history. For example, in 1948, according to the Marshall Plan, to rebuild the economies of western Europe took 12 billion USD, Or 4.3% of US GDP. Even in 2008, at the peak of the mortgage crisis, in order to divert the leading banks in the country from ruin it took 700 billion USD, or more than 5% of US GDP. It turns out that America is increasing the amount of debt as fast as if there were all financial, military, and natural disasters at the same time. In fact, nothing like this, of course, does not happen. According to the financial media, the economy returned to normal, and everything is so good that even the Fed is going to raise the key rate. In such circumstances, the country must reduce debt rather than increase its rate.
Of course, all this can not do else, but worry the creditors. USA is the leading economy in the world, and if suddenly one day, the country decides not to pay its debts, it could lead to an unprecedented crisis.