Societe Generale: Bullish trend in EUR/GBP the past few months ended

EUR/GBP in the last few days remained under sustained pressure. The currency strategists of Societe Generale advised to pay attention to the fact that the technical picture becomes less positive and especially, that passing the lower limit of the bullish channel in December last year is a negative signal fro the pair.

The bank notes that the currency pair is very close to the support in 0.7880/30 pounds (lows for the last month and 50% of the growth on March 3-rd), and a more convincing break below these levels would have confirmed the beginning of a deeper corrective phase.

In this case, EUR/GBP could fall to 0.7650 pounds and Societe Generale believe that for those who dare to open short positions, it is advisable to place stop loss at 0.8000 pounds.

Lloyds Bank: Technical comment for EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues to rise slowly moving away from the area of ​​support 1.1240, the movement is supported by the weakness of the US currency.
Lloyds Bank has a bearish outlook and they believe that this growth is only a correction of the sharp drop from the key resistance at 1.1465. Currently the pair is in the middle of the resistance in 1.1325 - 1.1375 and a break below 1.1240 will open the way for test of 1.0950 and 1.0800.
In the medium term the pair will probably remain in the corridor 1.0450 - 1.1465.
Break above the upper limit is not the main scenario of the bank, but if it happens, the pair will have every chance to test the August maximum over 1.1700 but also to reach 1.2000 to 1.2300 and to form new trade limits.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 19

EUR/USD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term but as long as the pair stay below 1.1335, the bearish scenario remains at this phase. The nearest support is 1.1275. A clear break below it could trigger further downside pressure for testing 1.1200. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above 1.1335 will become a threat to the bearish scenario re-testing 1.1500. The main technical outlook remains neutral.

The US dollar fell for a second consecutive day

The dollar started the week slightly, recording a fall against most major currencies after on the meeting in Qatar's capital Doha the main oil producers failed to agree to freeze yields.
Commodity currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar, and also the ruble, managed to raise, supported by the rise in oil prices. Black gold managed to erase most of its losses after oil meeting, managing to return over 39 dollars per barrel.
The yen retreated against the dollar. The Japanese currency fell with 0.8 percent to 109.10.
The Australian dollar continued its strong performance, reaching a 10-month high against the US dollar at around 0.7794.
William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said earlier that US economic conditions are "for the most part positive." However, the Fed still wary of rising interest rates.
On the other hand, according to some economists, the European Central Bank may have run out of ammo. According to them, the institution will have problems in the future weakening of the euro. The single currency rose by 0.27 percent to 1.1312.
The dollar index, which measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, fell with 0.26 percent to 94.50.

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The status quo in Syria remains - Assad wins the elections

The party of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad unsurprisingly won a large majority in parliamentary elections in the country.
The vote took place on Wednesday, but official results became clear today.
200 candidates of the bloc "National Unity", part of which is the Baas Party were elected to the 250-member unicameral parliament, said the Central Election Commission.
Turnout was 57.66 percent.
Protesters controlled by the regime territories, however shouting "Down with Assad" and "Get out, Assad."
5.08 million Syrians went to the polls in a total of 8.83 million potential
voters in the country devastated by five years of civil war.
The population of Syria before the outbreak of the conflict numbered 23 million. 13.5 million of them are affected by war in one way or another, according to UN data.

IMF warns on debt bomb in China

The world goes blind to a new crisis as investors began to lose confidence in the ability of politicians to revive economic growth, writes British newspaper "The Telegraph", citing a report by the International Monetary Fund outlook for the global economy.
Warning of loss of policy inaction, the IMF stated that the financial and economic stagnation could worsen if governments do not prevent the formation of malignant feedback because of the fragile trust between weak growth, low inflation and rising indebtedness.
Jose Vinyals, head of financial stability at IMF warned that continued delays could erase 3.9 percent of global gross domestic product compared with current expectations for the next five years amid persistent turmoil in the markets.
According Vinyals bomb hidden in a $ 1.3 trillion risky corporate debt that is ticking in China, also carries potentially serious challenges to financial stability if banks are pushed to the edge.
The loss of investor confidence bodes bad outlook for global markets. If no action is taken, the shares in the UK, the US, Eurozone and China will lose a fifth of its value in the next two years.

Economic shock of lifting the minimum wage in Turkey

Nearly 300,000 employees in small and medium enterprises in Turkey have lost their jobs in January after the increase of the minimum wage in the country.
A total of 379,000 people have lost their jobs in January, 76,000 of them are women.
The report pointed out that 78% of people lost their jobs in the first month of the year were employed in small and medium enterprises.
In January, the minimum wage in Turkey was increased from 1,000 Turkish Liras to 1,300.
Many businessmen have warned then that the change could lead to cuts.
Most job losses were recorded in most developed parts of the country. In Istanbul, 63,000 people were unemployed. Tens of thousands are cuts in Ankara, Izmir and Antalya.
Increase in employment in January was registered in only one of the 81 counties in Turkey - Van, one of the poorest in the country.
In the last quarter of last year it grew by an impressive 5.7% and seems unaffected by the conflict between the state and the Kurdish minority, attacks and worsening relations with Russia.
In Friday the Iranian President Hassan Rohan contracted with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan cooperation in the fields of tourism and transport. The goal is trade between the two countries to grow to $30 bln from about 10. Rohan said that Iran is ready to fully meet the needs of Turkey's oil and gas needs.

BNP Paribas: The growth of the yen is a temporary phenomenon

The pair EUR/JPY remains under pressure, but forex strategists at BNP Paribas believe the weakness is temporary, and offers attractive opportunities for opening long positions.
Analysts suggest that the growth of the yen reflects the disappointment of speculators, but do not see grounds for achieving new annual highs.
Fed undermined the confidence of the bulls and a key theme this year was the weakening of the dollar amid the silent expectation of increases in rates in the US. By BNP Paribas for example, do not believe that this year we will witness a tightening of monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the Japan Bank recently does not justify the hopes of the bears on the yen. We must not forget, however, that the situation in Japan is far from ideal and despite the showed restrain, regulators probably will be forced to adopt additional stimulus.
By BNP Paribas believe that sales of ¥ look attractive against both the dollar the euro. Experts retained its forecast for the exchange rate of EUR/JPY of Y131 at the end of the year and retain their long positions in the pair with target Y127.

BTMU: EUR/USD likely to remain in the range of $1.1050-$1.1450

Recent attempts of the EUR/USD to resume its growth amid the softer rhetoric of the Federal Reserve failed, note forex strategists  at BTMU.

As a result, the pair continues trading in range, which seems logical amid analysts estimates that "fair" value of EUR/USD is $ 1.11.

In the coming months the upcoming referendum on Britain's membership in the EU is likely to continue to exert pressure on the united currency. However, the softer stance of US regulators would not allow the dollar to advance against its competitors.

By BTMU not expect anything interesting from the next meeting of the European Central Bank, by providing that Mario Draghi will gently hint that the  incentives, made so far, so far should encourage inflationary pressures.

Experts take a neutral position on EUR/USD and forecast trading in the range of $1.1050- $1.1450.