The dollar took a breather

The central event in world markets is still the news of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran. This news has pushed up the prices of crude oil, which are already getting support on the wave of the still-ongoing OPEC pact and the decline in oil and petroleum products in the States.
The foreign exchange market was characterized by low activity yesterday. The dollar first accumulated gains in the European session, but then lost almost all of its growth against the background of weaker than expected data on industrial inflation in the US.
According to the data provided, the producer price index (PPI) in annual terms grew less than expected. It was assumed that the indicator will add 2.8%, but it grew by only 2.6% against the growth for the previous period under review by 3.0%. On a monthly basis, the index added 0.1% against the forecast of an increase of 0.2% and growth in March by 0.3%. The base value of the producer price index (PPI) also declined year-on-year, adding only 2.3% against expectations of 2.4% and the previous value of 2.7%.
The US dollar on the wave of these figures stopped pressure on major currencies and rolled back from the local peaks.

Nomura: Shorten the dollar in the summer

Temperatures are rising, and hence the tensions in foreign exchange markets. Japan's largest financial institution, Nomura Holdings Inc., has one offer for currency traders. And it is - to shorten the dollar in the summer.
The financial institution is of the opinion that a short dollar may be a good idea for the next three to four months. The recommendations are to shorten the dollar against the yen and the euro.
Since January, green money has been the strongest base currency, backed by Fed's rising interest rates.
Yesterday, the Fed kept the level of interest unchanged, warning that inflation was almost at the target level. Nonetheless, Nomura is of the opinion that the interest rate increase, which was not implemented yesterday, may begin to slow down.
And in an environment of expectation of ending the incentives from other leading banks around the world, the dollar may begin to decline compared to other major currencies, Nomura said.
Together with rising US inflation, Nomura believes that further interest rates, albeit at a slow pace, will have a very negative impact on the bond market.

Fed kept interest rates unchanged

The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged yesterday, but signaled that the inflation target was reached. Thus, the reserve, though disappointing investors expected an increase in interest rates at this meeting, opened its way to a June increase in interest rates.
The dollar initially declined, but subsequently recovered its losses. The euro returned at trading levels below 1.2000, with the pound continuing with its exceptionally strong impairment. Early this morning, a pound is exchanged for 1.3595 dollars.
The renewal of the Fed's inflation target is a major step after nearly six years in which consumer price growth in the world's largest economy is below the target of 2%.
The Fed also commented on the weak recent data on the labor market, saying labor market activity was slowing down, but it has performed well over the past few months.
In any case, at the next meeting on June 12-13, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points after not doing so yesterday. Or, the market has bet almost 100%, that we will see a rise next month, unless something really dramatic happens.

The US dollar ran out of its range

The US dollar has overtaken its trading line from the past nine weeks to a basket of currencies.
Nevertheless, green money recorded its best weekly performance since November 2016.
For the week, the dollar index added 1.41%, ending at 91.343 points.
The main catalyst behind the rise of the dollar was the rise in interest rates on 10-year US bonds. They passed the 3% levels for the first time in more than four years. Investors have shrunk their positions in US bonds as a result of fears about rising inflation and the prospects for further interest rates.
In the rest of the news, consumer confidence rose to 128.7 points, exceeding analysts' average expectations, while orders on durable goods grew to 2.6% or against the previous reporting period.
The US GDP also turned out to be above average expectations at 2.3%. Investors, however, continue to worry about the poor performance of consumer spending.
Another major reason for the appreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies was the difference in the Fed's expected policy and other banks around the world that would most likely not be as aggressive to interest rates.

US dollar with weekly growth against all major currencies

Over the past week, we have witnessed something that is happening relatively rarely - the dollar has appreciated against all major currencies.
A major part of the appreciation of green money relative to other currencies was predetermined by the rise in interest rates on US bonds, to which the dollar is extremely dependent.
Investors have renewed expectations for further interest rates to be raised by the Fed during the year. The rising demand for more risky assets, on the other hand, has led to further strength for the US currency.
For the last week, the dollar index ended at 90.075 points, or an increase of 0.64%.
Late last week, Fed officials hinted at a further gradual rise in interest rates based on strong economic growth figures.
Fed San Francisco head John Williams said that inflation will rise this year to Fed targets of 2% and will remain above those targets a few years.
In order to protect the US economy from overheating, it is necessary for the Fed to continue raising interest rates, Williams said.
On the other hand, the leader of the Chicago Fed, Charles Evans, said it might be more appropriate to raise interest rates gradually.

Wages in the US with the highest growth since 2009, employment with the first drop

The September Employment Report reported the first negative growth in 2010. Instead of these data, however, economists focused on strong wage growth of 2.9% on an annual basis. This was the fastest growth in wages since 2009.
Indeed, the fall in the number of people employed is largely determined by several hurricanes in the past month.
In September, the US economy lost practically 33,000 jobs while at the same time the unemployment rate dropped to its pre-crisis levels of 4.2%.
This was the first time since 2010 when we saw a decline in the number of jobs in the world's leading economy.

The EUR/USD ended last month with its longest monthly increase since 2013

The euro ended its longest monthly appreciation against the dollar since January 2013, following expectations of rising interest rates in the United States and political uncertainty in Europe.
Market expectations for another US interest rate hike by the end of this year are on the rise, following Janet Yelan's latest comments.
In addition, President Trump's plans for tax cuts seem closer to realization, which causes market players to bet on a strong dollar.
Finally, but not least, the political situation in Germany, as a result of the unconvincing victory of Angela Merkel, can not be ignored.
According to a number of market observers, however, despite all that has been said so far, the prospects for the euro against the dollar are generally positive.
The reason - the expectations Draghi to signal the end of the stimulus program in the euro area at the next ECB meeting in October.
The average expectations of Toronto Dominion Bank analysts are that the euro will end the year at 1.26 dollars.

The euro with a one-month minimum against the dollar

The euro fell below 1.1800 against the dollar, following Yellen's comments on Tuesday and political uncertainty in Germany after the weekend elections.
The single currency is traded at levels around 1.1750, or the lowest in more than a month.
The start of the depreciation for the euro was set by the election results in Germany and Merkel's indecisive victory. According to market observers, it will probably take several months to form a government, a situation that brings uncertainty to the markets.
In addition, in a statement Tuesday, Janet Yellen confirmed the Fed's position for further gradual raise in interest rates. Yellen, however, also said she was not sure about inflation development.
The breakthrough of the key level of support at 1.1810 could also pave the way for further sales of the single currency against the dollar, according to some technical analysts.
Further clarification on the future direction of the single currency is expected to be given by the ECB meeting, which will be held on 26 October. Until then, EUR/USD is likely to be traded in a range.

The dollar is nearly at two-year low against the euro, following Draghi's comments

The dollar registered its lowest value for two years against the euro on Friday, following Mario Draghi's comments. Draghi said we can see a change in ECB's asset repurchase policy in the autumn.
The dollar index, following the US currency against six major currencies, fell to 94.31 points and was not far from its lowest value since August of 2016 - at a level of 94.09 points. For the week, the index was down by 0.8%.
The euro closed the week at 1.16635.
Draghi announced that there is no specific date scheduled to change the ECB's ultra-stimulus policy on negative interest rates and asset repurchase, but specifies the season when it can happen.
His comments were considered aggressive by market participants, which was also the basis for the appreciation of the single currency.

The dollar rises after Dudley's comments

The dollar has appreciated against other major currencies, following comments by New York head of state, William Dudley, in support of the future policy of the reserve, on raising interest rates.
Green money rose by about 0.4 percent after Dudley said he was convinced of the economic recovery and strong performance in the labor market, which would eventually trigger inflation. Prior to the expert's statement, trading on the foreign exchange markets was relatively weak.
The statements of the official representatives of the reserve can continue to be at the heart of the investor's interest, as well as that of Stanley Fischer, in Amsterdam.
Dudley's comments come less than a week after the Fed's interest rate hike, when it hinted at another increase by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, some analysts start talking about two more Fed interest rises by the end of the year.
The dollar appreciated against all major currencies, with the highest appreciation against the African rand. To this, the US dollar rose by 1.9%.
The Canadian dollar proved to be the most stable currency against the dollar, to which the US currency appreciated by only 0.1% despite the continuing decline in oil prices.
The election victory of Emmanuel Makron's party has failed to support the euro seriously. The single currency fell to levels of 1.1143 against the dollar.

The dollar continues to grow against the yen after the decision of the JCB

The US dollar continued its strong appreciation against the yen. The Japanese central bank has kept its ultra-stimulation program unchanged.
The dollar index dropped by 0.1 percent to 97.461, compared to 97.48 in the US session. The index is headed for an increase of 0.2% this week.
However, the dollar's growth continued against the yen after the Japanese central bank decided to keep its stimulus policy on Friday. By voting 7 against 2, the bank continued to maintain negative interest rates of 0.1%. The dollar rose to a trading level of 111.40 yen. For comparison, on Thursday, the currency pair traded about one yen down.
The Japanese bank said it expects the Japanese economy to continue its recovery, backed by a policy of mild monetary policy.

The ECB kept interest rates, cutting its inflation forecasts

The ECB, as expected, kept the interest rate at 0%. The bank, however, has removed its comments for further interest rate cuts and said it will continue with its bond repurchase program.
In his statement, Draghi said interest rates are expected to remain at their current levels for an extended period of time, but added that he would be ready to extend the buy-back program if needed.
The speculation led to a momentous depreciation of the euro as the single currency declined to 1.1200 against the dollar after it had previously exchanged at 1.1240 levels.
Mario Draghi also said the ECB considers risks to the ECB's economy as "broadly balanced".
That he did by revising the financial institution's downward inflation expectations. The main reason for this is the cheaper oil, which will most likely continue to weigh above the growth in consumer prices.
The ECB is currently expecting an inflation rate of 1.5% this year, 1.3% next year and 1.6% in 2019. This is a decline compared to the March forecast for inflation of 1.7% this year, 1.6% in the next and 1.7% in 2019.

Forex forecast for GBP/USD for April 17 - 21, 2017

According to poll amongst forex analysts and looking at techical picture, the forecast for EUR/USD for the next week looks as follows:
A rebound was expected for the GBP/USD. The basis for such a forecast was a zone of strong medium-term support, near which there was the pair. The goal was the height of 1.2500, which the pair reached in the first half of the week, after which it took a breather for almost a day. And then, having gathered with strength, GBP/USD rose another 75 points higher, reaching a height of 1.2575 on Thursday.
In the medium term, almost 80% of experts expect the pair GBP/USD to fall (support levels are located at 1.2420, 1.2360 and 1.2110). As for the near future, most analysts (60%), supported by both oscillators and trend indicators, are inclined to the fact that the upward impulse has not yet exhausted, and the pair will reach at least the height of 1.2615. The next resistance is at the level of 1.2705.

Forex forecast for EUR/USD for April 17 - 21, 2017

According to poll amongst forex analysts and looking at techical picture, the forecast for EUR/USD for the next week looks as follows:
Both analysts, and technical analysis, based on the oversold pair EUR/USD, last week expected its rebound up, which actually happened. Infact, the strength of the bulls in this case was enough only to raise the pair to a height of 1.0690 (instead of the expected 1.0750), after which it fell to the support zone around 1.0610.
For the next week, most analysts (60%), supported by almost 90% of the indicators, are still on the side of the bears, expecting the pair fall to the 1.0500 zone. The alternative point of view, together with 40% of experts, is presented on the graphical analysis on H4. In their view, the pair is moving in the medium-term upwards channel, which began in December 2016, and it will first rise to the level of 1.0690, and then 130 points higher - to a high of 1.0820.

The pound went up against the backdrop of rising activity in the services sector of Great Britain

On Wednesday, the pound rate rose to a maximum for the session after the report data recorded in March the maximum growth in the service sector of the UK for the three months of 2017.
At 08:50 GMT, the pair EUR/USD increased by 0.27% to 1.2473 from the previous value of 1.2435.
Markit reported that the index of business activity in the service sector (PMI) of Great Britain increased last month to 55.0 compared to 53.3 in February. This is the maximum after December 2016.
Economists predicted that the value of this index would be 53.5.
The report says that the rate of price increase has become the maximum for eight and a half years, which indicates a possible increase in inflation this year above 3%, as many economists predict.
The report also indicates that the growth rate of new jobs in the services sector has become minimal over the past seven months.
Together with data from similar studies on the manufacturing and construction sectors that were published this week, the latest report indicated the likelihood of a slowdown in economic growth as the consequences of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.

USD/CAD holds above 1.3372 support

The Canadian dollar, paired with the US dollar, is above the support level in the region of 1.3372 dollars. It is also seen a way out of the framework of the downward trend, which hints at further growth in the medium-term outlook to a resistance level of 1.3516 dollars.
But, do not forget that in the frames of speculative trading there can be a move in favor of the Canadian dollar. Now oil prices are strengthening at a steady pace, this, in turn, supports the Canadian dollar. In addition, on Friday, traders will pay attention to the publication of the March unemployment rate of Canada. If the indicator continues to decline, it will positively affect the Canadian dollar in pairs with other currencies.

National Australia Bank reported a loss from euro after four months of waiting

National Australia Bank finally closed short positions in the single currency, opened in November last year, relying on the depreciation of the euro against the dollar below 1.00.

Hopes for a breakthrough at the lower limit of the consolidation pattern did not materialize and the bank closed short positions at the stop at 1.0900 with a loss of 318 points.

Let's remind that in November 2016 the euro dipped below the psychological level of 1.04 against the dollar, reviving hopes of eurobears for parity between the dollar and euro.

Protective assets are back in fashion (2)

Moreover, in the event of a Trump failure, the sales on the stock exchanges will activate and can be transformed into a tangible drawdown, especially given that the indices fall from record highs. Against this background, players will continue to show interest in the Japanese yen and gold. The precious metal, which rallies over the past six trading days has almost actually played the fall, which started in late February and reached its highs on March 1 at around 1249.33.
The development of the current trend on world markets is able to send gold quotes above 1250, and USD/JPY in this case risks targeting the lows on November 22 last year at 110.25.

Protective assets are back in fashion (1)

These days the prolonged rally of the US stock market was interrupted and resulted in a mass avertion from risky assets in all trading floors of the world. In these conditions, the Japanese yen naturally became the beneficiary and updated the highs of the current year paired with the dollar. USD/JPY has been falling continuously for the seventh day in a row, and today the quotations reached an important support level at 111.00, the breakdown of which will open the way to new records.
Investors are showing concern about the implementation of the plans of the Trump's administration. Tomorrow will be a fateful vote on the abolition of health care reform. And the importance of this event for the markets is that the outcome of the vote will show how successful Trump initiatives will be in the future. Especially the players are concerned about the future of the promised fiscal incentives and tax reform. So, at least until the results of discussion of healthcare reform in the markets are announced, the current tension will remain, and the protective assets will continue to be in demand.

Eurobulls are exhausted

At the auctions in Asia, the dollar rate was under pressure against its main competitors. The euro/dollar for the third time tested the level of 1.0818. The unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above 1.0820 led to a partial closure of long positions and a price drop to 1.0775. By 14.30 GMT, the euro/dollar currency pair revolves around the level of 1.0790.
The participants of the market, apparently, ended in patience. They can not decide whether to buy currencies against the US dollar or sell. The euro does not become more expensive or cheaper, it consolidates in the range of 43 points between the levels of 1.0775 and 1.0818. Negative impact on the single currency has the yield of 10-year German bonds, which fell by 9.13%, to 0.416% from the opening of the debt market in Europe. The yield on 10-year US bonds fell by 0.90%, to 2.412 and partially offset the negative background.
The overall technical picture on H1 for the euro/dollar pair indicates an increase to 1.0818. For this the pair need to pass the level 1,0800. If at the same time the yield of German bonds will increase, and the American yield will decrease, then there is a probability of climbing above 1.0818. The target for the next two days is 1.0849.