Review of major currencies

USD - The dollar will strengthen its position as a safe haven, if the markets will return to the reaction to Brexit, but if the mood changes, USD may begin to decline, particularly against commodity currencies. The dollar should soon gain traction, or uncertainty will begin to grow rapidly. Also today comes an important report on the PCE inflation.

EUR - ECB and Europe need to do something with the banks to avoid a credit crunch and a cooling economy. Many overpraise the positive current account balance in Europe, considering that this is a plus for the currency, forgetting that, among other things, it is a sign of Europe's dependence on the world economy - in particular this applies to Germany with unprecedented high export intensity.

JPY - Yen can keep up with the dollar, if the current rise in risk appetite quickly fade away and turn into a new wave of sales of risky assets - but the real threat of intervention and incentives already looming on the horizon - perhaps the new measures will be taken after the elections to the upper house of parliament on July 10.

GBP - Pound may continue to decline, but, given the scale of the new range, consolidation could make it difficult for the bears to find the entry point. Yesterday's high at 1.3400 in the pair GBP/USD is the first pivot point after the Brexit.

Autochartist - priceless tool for traders

Autochartist is the world’s most advanced tool for automatic identification of chart pattern formations such as Triangles, Wedges, Head-and-Shoulders and Channels, as well as Fibonacci retracements and extensions, ABCD-, Gartley- and Butterfly Patterns.
This powerful tool is now improved by ActivTrades - an independent broker, who specializes in operations with contracts for difference (CFD), Forex market investments, as well spread-betting.
Now ActivTrades offers a free subscription to Autochartist: considered as the best tool for intraday trading. Autochartist helps traders of any level to be more confident when making decisions related to trading. Make technical analysis as part of your trading strategy, regardless to your experience!

The main functions of Autochartist include:

- Key levels: Horizontal support and resistance levels often occur at significant price levels. Through Key Levels, Autochartist automatically identifies the the price levels and determines them as "Breakout" or "Approach".

- Power Stats: It gives traders important statistical information about the instruments they trade. It helps when setting stop-loss and take-profit levels, and provides a better assessment of risk and volatility.

For detailed information about the futures and benefits of Autochartist, please follow this link.

Brexit in cartoons

Social networks are always able to accurately reflect what is happening - briefly and precisely, of course Brexit topics is not an exclusion. I have collected for you 16 of the finest memes and cartoons on the subject. Enjoy!

1. "Stronger together".

2. "Eutanic".

3. "Britanic".

4. "Quibble".

5. "The Big Dip".

6. "Reality".

7. "Turnabout".

8. "The flag is enough".

9. "Grumpy".

10. "The Big Push".

11. "Avant-garde".

12. "Crossroads".

13. "Scobrout".

14. "...".

15. "But I'm staying".

16. "Brexit".

Britons want to repeat the referendum

The preliminary results of the British referendum made Friday black for pound. the British currency has fallen against the US dollar with 11.93% (1792 points) to 1.3226 until the completion of the counting of votes in all districts. Traders sold the pound all over the market, so it was most feverish.
The euro/dollar fell less than three times than the pound, with only 516 points to 1.0911. The growth of euro/pound eased the pressure on euro. Gold rose in price by 8.63%, to 1358.21. Oil fell by 3.46% to $ 47.52.
When it became known that 52% of Britons voted for the country's exit from the EU, in the forex market started a correction. GBP/USD registeres pullback with 38% (754 points), euro/dollar recovered with 50%.
Bloomberg reported that the Swiss National Bank in response to Brexit made an intervention in the foreign exchange market to prevent the Swiss franc strengthened against the single currency. The regulator has promised to monitor the situation and keep their presence on the market.
The referendum will be discussed a few more days. Volatility declined, but remains high enough for the major pairs. Do any forecasts on exchange rates at the moment is meaningless.
Central banks and finance ministers of the G7 plan to hold a meeting on Brexit. British Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his intention to resign in October.
Perhaps it is not worth rushing the Brexit?! The Britons signed a petition to reconsider the referendum. They need to collect 30 thousand more signatures, so the document would be considered in the Parliament of Great Britain. In the petition they want a second referendum for Britain's membership in the European Union, which would be held according to EU law. Where the voter turnout should be at least 75%, and for one of the embodiments voted not less than 60% of people.

Brexit countdown started

The market yesterday has completely ignored the speech of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen, as the countdown for the British referendum already started. According to members of the election committee, the first results will start to appear on Friday morning, and finally all will be clear "for breakfast."
The prolonged waiting period is over, and yesterday it became quite clear how much the markets are zombified by the referendum: they did not even pay attention to the Yellen's speech to the Senate. In part, this indifference, of course, due to the fact that the Fed has lost confidence and made mistakes, as a result of which investors do not pay attention to the comments of the Central Bank, and monitor the incoming data.
The quote of the week belongs to Yellen, who said yesterday that "the Fed does not rely on a statement of intent", as, indeed, the markets. The head of the central bank is still optimistic about the US economy, but she is worried about the situation in China, as well as the prospect of Brexit; while in Bloomberg agency noted a slight downward change in forecasts for the economy.
According to some sources, the voting results will appear throughout the night and early Friday morning, while all regions are showing varying degrees of support for Brexit or staying in the EU. Of course, if the key regions demonstrate a clear desire to leave or stay, and the result will differ sharply from the expectations, the market will make some conclusions, that will lead to large-scale movements.
In addition, we should also consider the fact that the referendum is not binding, so even in case of victory of Brexit supporters, in the near future it could not change anything, as in accordance with Article 50 of the Lisbon agreement negotiations could drag on for two years. It is not excluded, that history will repeat itself with the referendum in France and the Netherlands on the EU Constitutional Reform in 2005, where people voted against it, but it still was held.
The Brexit scenario is almost completely excluded from the price, there is now more skewed towards the scenario that involves the preservation of the UK's membership of the EU. It will be worse if Brexit wins, especially if it's with a small difference - we'll have to bite our nails all night on Friday from tension. The probability of large-scale price volatility in the case of Brexit increased as the market has not really believe in such possibility. This means that it will be difficult to justify the reaction of traditional patterns of behavior during the key events of "sell on the rumor, buy on fact".

Calmness before the storm

On Tuesday, the weakening of the US currency has slowed against the background of market hopes that the result of the vote on Britain's membership will be positive to remain in the EU. The main beneficiary of the currency markets, as expected, was the pound, which flew for the first two days of the week with 4.21%, offsetting not only all fall from the beginning of the month, but adding another 1.53%.
Recent polls over the weekend showed that the balance in the forthcoming vote on Brexit leans in favor of the desire to remain in the EU, and that was reason enough to rally the sterling, as well as strong demand for risky assets. But despite this optimism, the uncertainty in this sensitive issue is still present, as the gap between the supporters of the status quo and Brexit is not too big and things can change on Thursday.
In my opinion, the activity in the markets on Thursday will slow down significantly as probable positive result from voting as a whole is played.
In general, if we look closely at the picture on the currency market, the local weakening of the US dollar late last week and earlier this week did not led to the formation of stable trends. Currency pairs with the USD simply added to the latter and moved to the opposite side of the already existing ranges. Counting on change of the overall picture in the near future is not justified, and the main to blame this situation is Fed, which does not give clear signals, that we should not be waiting better times for a growth of rates, bit still does not increase them, contributing to nervousness in the markets and an increased level of volatility.
As for today's speech from ECB President M. Draghi, it is also unlikely to report anything new and significant, which would cause the markets to be more energetic, so the main theme remains Brexit.

Forecast on EUR/USD for June 21

The last public opinion poll conducted in the UK on the topic of EU membership, has identified the majority of supporters of the preservation of the country's membership in the euro area. The results of this survey have weakened the US dollar, halting the downward trend of the currency pair, observed last week. For the past day, the euro/dollar showed high volatility, rising from the level of 1.1345, reaching the level of 1.1376, before rolling to 1.1302.
During the morning session, it is expected that the trading range for the pair will be in the range 1.1310 - 1.1350, with a possible decrease to the support line at around 1.1278. If the resistance line is broken, it is possible to decrease to the level of 1.1250.
If the mark of 1.1278 will withstand the onslaught of the pair, before the closing of the European session, prices will concentrate in the range 1.1280 - 1.1320.
In the afternoon, will be held a press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi and a speech of the Fed's Janet Yellen before the US Congress. These presentations will focus on the current economic situation in the euro area and the US respectively. After Draghi's speech, it is expected a high volatility of the currency pair EUR/USD and the periodic correction of the trend in the range of 30-40 points, depending on the press-conference results. It is possible that trading can end in a range of 1.1250 - 1.1300, fixing formed downtrend.

Markets are preparing for the British referendum

Toward the close of the week global markets come to life after a hectic week, and especially after Friday's "rally". The focus is the upcoming British referendum overshadowed the meeting of several central banks, economic releases and sentiment in the oil market. On Friday risky assets reduced force, the European government bond yields rose from record lows, the dollar has traded under pressure.

It turned out that the tragic events of Friday were the indirect cause of the abrupt change of sentiment in the global markets. The murder of a British MP Joe Cox stopped the campaign before the referendum and strengthen the hopes of saving Britain in the EU. Survey results still do not reveal a clear advantage for supporters or opponents of Brexit, which increased the degree of tension to the limit.

I still tend to favor, that Britain's membership in the Union will be saved. However, because of the uncertainty it makes sense to assess the potential extent of movement of cable in both directions. In case the status quo remains, the currency will show growth, however, the reaction will not be such a large-scale and long-term, such as in "exit" scenario. The victory of the opponents of "Brexit" will not cause significant changes. Markets will "rejoice" and soon will forget about this vote. And since the country's exit from the European Union will have a large-scale and long-term consequences, the downward pressure on the pound will be more pronounced and protracted. In this case, the euro also will fall as UK backdown would mark a violation of the integrity of the European region and may result a domino effect.

The fateful vote will take place on Thursday, June 23, and the results should be available on Friday morning. So the markets will have a tense week, the results of which will determine the mood of risky assets in the medium term.

Fed kept interest rates unchanged

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and signaled that they still plan to raise rates twice in 2016, despite slow economic growth, which indicates a tightening of monetary policy in the coming years.
The decision of the central bank, however, is not very stable, 6 of the 17 members predict at least one more increase this year.
The sharp drop in hiring in the United States forced doubts about the strength of the labor market in the US, before the meeting of the Fed. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen acknowledged the need to see clear signs of economic strength before raising rates.

"We must be sure that there is enough momentum," said Yellen on a press conference.

The Fed also said the economy will grow only 2 percent this year and in 2017, and it is 0.1 percentage points lower than previous forecasts for each year.
Yellen also didn't gave clear signs whether the rates will be raised at the next meeting in late July or the central bank will wait to see stronger data and will decide at its meeting in September.

Shares of LinkedIn jumped 48% on news of the deal with Microsoft

Shares of LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) on the premarket soared more than 48% after Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) announced that it acquires a social network for $ 26.2 billion.
Redemption fully in cash at the price of $ 196 per share, which is 50% higher than at the close on Friday night for $ 131.08.
Both companies stated that the agreement is final and LinkedIn will retain its brand and independence.
Jeff Weiner will remain Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of LinkedIn, reporting to the head of Microsoft Satya Nadella.
The companies said that the deal will be closed by the end of this year.