Oil with heavy losses

Oil has serious losses yesterday, following the escalation of US-China trade pressure.
China said they will not surrender and have imposed new import duties on US goods worth over 16 billion dollars. At the same time, Trump threatened to impose $200 billion in customs duties on goods.
This has triggered a drop in brent of over 3%, to below $72 a barrel, on international markets. Earlier today, the raw material recovered some of its loss by adding 30 cents to 72.50 dollars a barrel.
US crude added 20 cents to $67.10 a barrel after a loss of 3.2 percent yesterday. To a large extent, oil prices are supported by fears that Iran's new sanctions will lead to a decline in supply.
Investors' fears are that the US-China trade war will enter the final phase, and the stake for both sides will be "all or nothing". And this, in turn, would lead to a serious slowdown in the US economy.
China is the largest importer of crude oil in the world, with an average of 8.48 million barrels a day, 8.18 million barrels per day a year earlier and 8.36 million barrels in June.
The US energy agency said yesterday that oil reserves had fallen by about 1.4 million barrels last week. However, gasoline stocks surprisingly rose by 2.9 million barrels.

Oil ended July with an increase of between 6 and 7%

Speculation to find a solution in the Red Sea, as well as data on surging oil stocks, contributed to the decline in oil prices. We can recall that at the beginning of the week, the Brent almost reached the 75-dollar barrel again.
Concerns about the deepening US-China trade war, and the potential slowdown in Asia's economic growth, have led to a 30-cents loss for Brent up to $74 a barrel.
Losses of nearly 40 cents were also recorded by US crude oil futures. Together with the fall of Tuesday, the drop in oil is already close to 2%.
Yet, July was a good month for oil. In the seventh month of the year, Brent added 6% to its value, and US crude oil - nearly 7%.

Oil is resuming its decline

After yesterday's recovery, the price of oil went down again today. Brent with delivery next month was traded at levels of $73.30 by noon. The risks of oversupply of raw materials have begun to dispel concerns about tensions between the United States and Iran.
Yesterday, the President of the United States addressed the Iranian president a serious threat to Twitter, which was repeated by other officials of the government. All of this, bent market participants, to the expectation of further oil supply problems. It rose to $74 a barrel, but failed to keep up on that level and began to fall again.
Saudi Arabia and large producers are increasing their yields to offset the losses likely to come as the deadline for imposing sanctions approaches.
Meanwhile, US pil reserves at the supply center in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased at the end of last week, retailers have reported, referring to information from the Genscape Market Research Agency.
In the last week of the month, however, inventories in the center are expected to drop, add traders. Further clarity on the state of supply is expected to be made tomorrow after the data on oil stocks in the world's largest economy.
The attention of market participants has moved away from escalating disputes over the impact of world trade on global economic growth and the demand for energy sources and raw materials.
Over the weekend, the G20 financial leaders voiced concern about the global economy's risk that may be the trade strain between the United States and China.

Bears rule: the market on Friday found no reason to rejoice

On the evening of Friday, the US dollar lost against the euro and let it grow. The main currency pair is above 1.1720. The risk for the euro is Italy with its political imbalance, besides some of the politicians again mention the possibility of the country's exit from the euro area - this is not the driver at which the single European currency can rise in price.
In oil, the "bulls" are trying to win back part of the weekly sales, but in the last couple of weeks, no one has gone up for black gold effectively. A barrel Brent opens the week with worth about $73.07, the resistance is at $73.50 and $73.75 respectively.
The gold closed last week near historically low levels, at a price of $1,233.60.

Oil fell after the US can resort to its reserves

US oil fell back below the psychological limit of $71 a barrel. This became reality after Saudi Arabia warned it would raise its output for two of its clients in Asia. In addition, the US has said it can turn to its strategic reserves to stop the rise in fuel and oil prices.
Oil futures in New York lost 0.8% of their value after falling by 3.8% last week.
With the price of oil reaching a three-year high in the past month, fears that the trade war between the US and China will hurt the price of "black gold" have become serious.
The renewed sanctions against Iran, as well as the declining production from Venezuela, were factors that compensated to a certain extent the depreciation of the oil price.
OPEC and its partners have agreed that they can resort to an increase of more than 1 million barrels of oil if needed.
US crude oil is trading early in the morning at $70.50 a barrel.
Brent with delivery in September traded at a level of 74.96 dollars per barrel.

Oil lost nearly 7% yesterday, partially recovering today

Brent recovered partially from his strong losses yesterday. Today, the raw material added 1.3 dollars, or 1.8 percent, to $74.7 a barrel. US crude oil futures added just 42 cents, or 1.8 percent to $70.8.
The premium between Brent and US crude oil is still extremely small - just four dollars, against more than ten dollars just a few weeks ago.
Yesterday, "black gold" lost nearly 7 percent of its value as a result of continuing tensions in trade relations between the US and China. Yesterday, Trump threatened China with import duties on Chinese goods for about $200 billion.
Experts recall that we often see the compensation of some of the losses, with decreases with yesterday's magnitude. So the rise in raw materials today is not a big surprise.

Trump: OPEC is guilty of high oil prices

US President Donald Trump has made another accusation. This time, he blamed OPEC for high oil and fuel prices. And no doubt, most Americans probably think the same way.
Oil has risen more than twice since the beginning of 2016, after reaching levels of less than $30 at that time. And to date, US consumers are facing the highest fuel prices at petrol stations in 2014.
On Wednesday, the price of a gallon of normal fuel was at an average of 2.91 dollars, or an increase of 25%, a year earlier, according to AAA data.
The price of oil is too high, OPEC is behind that. It's not good, tweeted Donald Trump on Wednesday morning.

Oil rises after Trump withdraws from the deal with Iran

Oil rose during the Asian trading session after President Donald Trump announced that the US would withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran and re-sanction the country. This has led to an increase in oil prices.
US crude oil rose $1.58 to $70.64 a barrel after it fell by 1.67 dollars to 69.06 dollars a barrel on Tuesday. Brent rose 1.85 dollars to 76.70 dollars a barrel, after losing the previous day of 1.32 dollars.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Nikkei 225 fell 0.4 percent to 22 412.96 points, while the South Korean leading index lost 0.1 percent of its value. Hang Seng, Hong Kong, added 0.5% to 30 552.57 points.
According to market observers, geopolitical risks are rising, especially related to Iran and the price of oil.

The dollar took a breather

The central event in world markets is still the news of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran. This news has pushed up the prices of crude oil, which are already getting support on the wave of the still-ongoing OPEC pact and the decline in oil and petroleum products in the States.
The foreign exchange market was characterized by low activity yesterday. The dollar first accumulated gains in the European session, but then lost almost all of its growth against the background of weaker than expected data on industrial inflation in the US.
According to the data provided, the producer price index (PPI) in annual terms grew less than expected. It was assumed that the indicator will add 2.8%, but it grew by only 2.6% against the growth for the previous period under review by 3.0%. On a monthly basis, the index added 0.1% against the forecast of an increase of 0.2% and growth in March by 0.3%. The base value of the producer price index (PPI) also declined year-on-year, adding only 2.3% against expectations of 2.4% and the previous value of 2.7%.
The US dollar on the wave of these figures stopped pressure on major currencies and rolled back from the local peaks.

Forecast on oil for April 10

Quotes of WTI crude oil rose significantly in Monday trading and ended the session at around $63.30 per barrel. The growth of quotations at the beginning of the trading week was associated with expectations of an increase in the volume of shale oil production in the United States in the short term. On Friday, Baker Hughes announced a significant increase in the number of active drilling rigs to the highs of 2015.
The alleged development of the conflict between the US and China has a negative impact on oil quotes. Some softening of the position of Donald Trump during the weekend supported the growth of oil prices on Monday. World stock markets recovered at the beginning of the week, which led to an increase in quotations by almost 2%. At the same time, market participants highly appreciate the likelihood that the parties will not be able to agree and will continue to impose sanctions on the import of goods, which will contribute to pressure on prices.
The high level of implementation of the current agreement to reduce oil production by OPEC countries and those participating in the transaction also lead to higher prices. Earlier, it was reported that OPEC could increase the global supply in order not to lose its market share, but this information did not have a significant impact on quotes.
In the forecast for Tuesday, I expect further strengthening of quotations of WTI oil to resistance levels of 63.50, 63.80 and 64.25 dollars per barrel.

Oil recovers some of its losses

Oil rose yesterday, backed by the well-known recovery in stock markets and a result of purchases by speculators who thought growth was excessive.
Brent futures added 48 cents yesterday, or 0.7 percent to $68.12 a barrel, trading at $68.45 a barrel earlier this morning.
Brent's upgrading became a reality after nearly a 4 per cent decline on Monday, the biggest since June.
The sharp decline in oil has happened after Brent reached the highest value this year at $71 a barrel in the past week.
US crude oil futures rose 50 cents, or 0.8 percent to 63.51 dollars a barrel.

Oil rises for the third quarter, for the first time since 2010

Oil rose and traded more than $70 a barrel for a third consecutive day as a result of backing tensions around the Middle East. And while oil production grows fast, investors remain cautious.
Brent added 28 cents, or 70.4 dollars a barrel, while US crude rose 19 cents to 65.74 dollars a barrel.
Oil prices rose by more than 7 percent since the beginning of the month, following an increase of 5.3 percent in the first three months of the year. This allows it to register a third consecutive quarter of growth, something the market has not seen since 2010.
Geopolitical tensions and expectations of trade wars largely support the cost of raw material.
Brent traded at levels above $70 a barrel for the second time this year, from the end of 2014. Experts say this high oil price may not last too long.

OPEC disputes

These days the oil segment has received a new food for thought, which makes players think about longer-term prospects for black gold. In particular, within OPEC there were contradictions in the question of the relevant price. Iran's oil minister believes that the cartel should support quotes at around $60 per barrel, explaining this by the fact that higher levels will lead to an even more active increase in production in the US shale fields. According to some estimates, if the average price of oil is $70, next year, Americans will produce 600 thousand barrels per day more.
Meanwhile, his Saudi colleague stands for oil at $70. Recall that the kingdom pursues its internal interests - the government needs larger oil revenues to finance large-scale economic reforms and IPO of the state oil giant Saudi Aramco. By the way, recently there were rumors that the initial public offering of the company's shares will be postponed to 2019, which means that Saudi Arabia will fight for higher prices longer than previously thought.
The emerging split in the cartel does not predict good news for energy prices. If Iran finds like-minded people in its initiative, which implies easing of restrictions in the deal, high discipline in the format of OPEC+ may be threatened. Then the level of $70 per barrel, above which Brent did not rise since the beginning of February, will become illusory for the market if the Saudis do not take measures that will strongly impress buyers or there will not be a large-scale supply disruption on a geopolitical basis.

Oil began the week with growth

Oil prices rose on Monday morning when recovering on Asian stock markets, as well as amid tensions in the Middle East.
Futures for the North Sea blend Brent climbed 0.79 percent to $65.35 a barrel.
Futures contracts for US light oil WTI by this time traded at $62.37 per barrel, which is 1.12 percent higher than the previous close.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel is ready to act not only against Iran's Middle Eastern allies, but also against Tehran, if it continues to actively intervene in the conflict in Syria.
Among the factors holding back the further rise of the market, analysts call the rapid growth of oil production in the US.
According to the calculations of the Energy Information Administration (EIA), weekly production of raw material in the US rose to a historic high of 10.27 million barrels per day for the week by February 9.
In addition, the number of installations for drilling oil wells in the US last week increased by 7 pieces to 798 - the highest value since April 2015, the data of the oil service company Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

Oil is still rising, backed by the weak dollar

The price of oil continued its growth yesterday, continuing its growth from the previous day, backed by the weakness of the US dollar and the comments from Saudi Arabia that we will soon see a market with a lower supply than the end of the agreement between OPEC and Russia.
Oil prices have been under severe pressure in recent weeks as a result of speculation that the agreement between OPEC and Russia will be phased out before the end of 2018.
US crude oil rose 42 cents, or 0.7 per cent, adding 2.4 per cent to its previous session.
Brent rose 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, continuing its 2.6 percent growth on Wednesday.
Aid to the rise in the price of oil was also the weak US dollar against other leading raw materials.
Traditionally, the weakness of green money supports the consumption of dollar-denominated commodities, making them relatively less expensive in other currencies.

Why can oil go down to $50?

The fundamental oil situation has changed suddenly and quickly. Last year's history of oversupply suddenly changed to a shortage of oil. This raises the question of whether there is a surplus on raw materials and is not oil too expensive?
Instability in Nigeria, the 30-year minimum in Venezuela's production, and the agreement between OPEC and Russia, led oil near the psychological level of $70 a barrel.
By the end of last week, however, the big speculators hold just under 660,000 net long oil contracts, or the biggest bullish position in the history of oil futures. This should definitely be a serious "alarm signal" for investors.
Whom will these big investors sell their oil futures? And how this sale will affect the price of the raw material?
Unbinding this big position may be the main reason for the price depreciation of oil to $50 a barrel or about 20% of its current levels.
And while there are bullish traders who think we are at the beginning of a new epic billush oil cycle, the situation may be far different, and we will soon see oil falling to 50 dollars.

US indexes with new records after the growth of energy companies

The US indexes continued their record-breaking series last week. This time, energy companies were at the center of the growth. They were backed by the Brent price rise to more than $70 a barrel.
US crude oil also saw significant growth, adding 1.6% to its value, to $64.58 a barrel or its highest level since December 2014.
A surprise drop in US oil production and a reduction in raw material stocks in the world's largest economy have helped to raise the price of "black gold."
Shares of leading US energy companies have seen significant growth, contributing to the rise in indices. Chevron shares added 3.2% to its value, and Exxon - 1.5%.
S&P energy index rose 2.2%, which was the biggest increase for more than seven months.
Otherwise, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index added 119.54 points to its value, or near 0.5% to a new record value of 25,488.67, while the broad S&P 500 rose 15 points to 2,763.29 points.
Technological Nasdaq Composite index also rose to a new record, adding more than 30 points to its value, or 0.4% to 7 182.20 points.
The US indices broke off on Wednesday a winning series of six consecutive sessions as a result of rumors that China will delay buying US government bonds.
Investors, however, have turned their attention again to the expected good results of US companies, which will come into full force very soon.

Oil will drop after OPEC meeting?

Comments on the OPEC meeting sent the price of the Brent upward over the past week, but hedge funds saw a good opportunity to reduce their exposure to oil.
The latter cut their bullish bets on the Brent, taking advantage of the raw material growth.
Forecasts have shown that it is possible for the price of oil to fall significantly after the OPEC meeting, similar to what happened earlier this year.
The Brent is traded close to its highest value in two years before the OPEC meeting, which will be held on 30 November in Vienna. The Cartel and Russia are expected to extend their production cuts by the end of next year.
According to market observers, however, OPEC and Russia are still working on smoothing the conditions for the future continuation of the current conditions.
Market participants still remember what happened in May before the OPEC meeting. Oil futures rose 10% before the decision after which the price dropped seriously after disclosure of the redundancies.
Still, there are still many investors who believe that oil can continue to rise, at least until the OPEC meeting.

Oil pulled the US indices down

US indices dropped yesterday, driven by oil price losses for the fourth consecutive day. This has led to a drop in the shares of energy companies. In addition, investors continue to worry about the lack of presentation of tax reforms.
This has begun to increase speculation whether reforms will meet the analysts' increased expectations.
The fall in oil prices came after the surprise growth in oil and petroleum stocks last week.
Metal prices also fell due to fears about the state of the Chinese economy and the possibility of slowing significantly.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by nearly 95 points and the S&P 500 lost 9.3 points.
The volatility index reached a two-month high at 14.51 points.
Financial shares were among the few profitable, and they are expected to benefit from the potential rise in interest rates next month.

Did the oil reach its peak?

Oil fell yesterday as prospects for further rising of raw material prices met with expectations of a rise in US production. The US producers seem to increase their production in light of the recent rise in the price of "black gold."
Brent futures are at a level of $62.94 a barrel, or a decline of 22 cents, or 0.35% since their last closing. US crude oil lost 14 cents to $56.62 a barrel.
Decline became a reality after oil reached its highest levels since 2015 in the past week. Since then, however, the raw material has lost some moment in its movement.
US production has risen by more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to a record 9.62 million barrels per day.
From the beginning of the year to the present, the average price of the Brent is at a level of 54.5 dollars per barrel.
Many traders forecast for a drop in oil prices from now on, following expectations of further US production growth.
OPEC has raised its forecast for next year's demand growth of 360,000 barrels a day, against previous expectations in July.