AUD/USD

Against the backdrop of the weakening of the US dollar and the strengthening of the Australian currency, the pair's quotes manage to show an upward trend fourth trading day in a row. But with such a powerful strengthening quotes managed to approach to a very important resistance level of 0.7515/25.
It is noteworthy that this level is not only a maximum of 13 and 14 December, and a minimum of November 11-15. All this indicates a high degree of importance of the marked level of resistance. Accordingly, the risk of corrective decline remains high.
The nearest support level stands at a mark of 0.7455, a break of which would open the way to 0.7430. However, more important still will the support area of 0.7350-0.7370. Until the return of the pair's quotes below the marked area of ​​support, the overall mood remains "Bullish".

Small currencies rose against the Big Three

The lack of clarity in relation to the US dollar has left the currency market in domination of small currencies, which are strengthening against the "Big Three" against the background of extreme carelessness of investors in the asset markets, keen on hunting for higher incomes.
On Tuesday the States have returned to work after Labor Day, officially completing the summer holidays on the markets. Together with the autumn in the global asset markets, as a rule, return volatility, in fact, historically, the worst misfortune is happening in September and October. This is an important fact, since the last few weeks on foreign exchange markets reigns criminal carelessness and investors stubbornly refuse to notice the impending danger, considering that central banks will take care of everything, so they can easily search for the most profitable ways to invest.
Only this way could be explained, for example, the strengthening of AUD/USD after yesterday's meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is the last for Glenn Stevens, who this month leaves the post of chairman and delegates it to Philip Lowe. In the accompanying statement, the RBA noted low inflation and suggested that in the near future the price situation will not change, because the low salaries do not contribute to inflationary pressures.

The dollar fell after weak economic data from the US

The dollar fell on Friday after US data unexpectedly indicated that retail sales in the US have not changed in July, while the producer prices fell, triggering fears about economic growth in the third quarter.
Economists forecasts for retail sales were for growth by 0.4 percent. The decline in producer prices was the first since March and the strongest since September 2015.
"Retail sales data in the US is particularly strong pushing down the dollar", - said Nick Bennenbrek from Wells Fargo Securities in New York.
Dollar slowed down by 0.46 percent on Friday night to a basket of major currencies, falling to 95.254, at least one week. The dollar also lost 0.9 percent against the yen to 101.00 and 0.6 percent against the euro, to $ 1.1201.
A week ago, the US currency has demonstrated rally after data, which pointed stronger job growth in July than forecasts, reinforcing expectations, that the Fed will raise rates this year.
However, this week, the dollar lost its advantage, as investors hardly expect a rate hike in September, and the December's meeting of the regulator is still far.
The Australian dollar rose by 0.3 percent to $ 0.7714 after falling to $ 0.7671. The New Zealand dollar gained 0,5 percent to $ 0.7249, before falling to $ 0.7186.

AUD/USD - long position from 0.7459

BASIC PARAMETERS

• Price: 0.7459 (market)
• Stop: 0.7400
• Limit: 0.7630
• Expected time for reaching the target: 3 days

The decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia left its main interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, failed to support the Aussie for a long term. The pair is currently trading below the psychological level of 0.7500. Given the negative data expected overseas, I see an opportunity to open a long position in AUD/USD with shallow stop on 0.7400. On hourly chart RSI suggests an impending upward movement. The limit of today's commercial idea is under the maximum from June 23 - 0.7630.

Australian dollar has received support

Since the beginning of the last week AUD was showing sensitivity to Australian statistics - we could sense market uncertainty about the future of monetary policy on the continent. So the Building Approvals index, which came out better than expected - 3.0% (vs. forecasts for  -3.1%) led to the growth of the Australian dollar by 25 points.
The growth of the economy for the first quarter also supported the Australian dollar, data came out higher than expected: 1.1% compared with 0.8% forecast. Data registered record high.
If we take an annualized basis, the Australian economy has added 3.1% compared to expectations of 2.8%. Exports rose by 4.4%, which added 1% to GDP growth.
Such indicators may affect the RBA in their future plans of easing monetary policy through lower interest rates.
Reverse effect on the Australian dollar may have only USD with its labor market data, released on Friday.

The Australian dollar fell after Glenn Stevens opened the door for another reduction in interest rates

The Australian dollar is back below 72 cents after market participants saw the recommendation of the Governor of the Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens to guide inflation to 2-3% as confirmation that Bank of Australia will again cut interest rates because of inflation.
In remarks Stevens said the RBA was "very committed to achieve the goal of inflation through monetary policy."
The medium-term inflation target is 2-3%, it is not firm and does not require a response from the bank of Australia and traders act as if the door to a further reduction in interest rates is still wide open.
Stevens also said that the Australian dollar does what is expected to do and act as a "shock absorber" for the economy.
So Stevens would be pleased if the Australian dollar goes back below 72 cents, as many traders now expect it to fall to its lowest levels for the year - 0.6850. This will provide a significant boost to overall economic growth, as Stevens said that if it is stronger, that would be better.
He also added that demand for housing slows.
From his remarks analysts concluded that another reduction in interest rates is on the way.
The dollar found support in its recent lows and now all eyes are on whether 0.7170 will resist or level will be breached.