The situation with OPEC's production limits becomes even more bizarre

Do you remember that the OPEC countries agreed to extend their production restrictions by the end of the first quarter of 2018? And instead of jumping, the price of oil starts with their sharp depreciation...
Apparently, market participants still had concerns that OPEC countries would not be able to meet the accepted restrictions. And they were right. It became clear that in May the cartel actually increased its production.
The situation becomes even more bizarre in June. OPEC production again exceeds production constraints, pointing to the worst coordination between countries over a long period of time.
According to data from the International Energy Agency, world production rose by 720,000 barrels per day in June. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer within OPEC, produced more oil in June, a month earlier.
More oil has also produced by countries that are not officially involved in OPEC, such as Nigeria and Libya.
A total of 21 OPEC members reached an agreement at the end of last year, which aimed to cut production by 1.8 million barrels. The purpose of production cuts was to raise the price of oil. Low raw material prices have largely become a reality as a result of the rising production coming from the United States.
But, there is still good news about oil. MEA forecasts an increase in oil consumption of 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, compared to one million barrels in the first three months of the year.

Oil collapsed last week

Oil prices dropped severely last week after Russia rejected OPEC's offer to reduce production.
US crude oil lost nearly 3 percent of its value, a similar decrease was also noted with the price of the Brent.
In May, OPEC, along with Russia, decided to continue its production cuts by the first quarter of next year.
A little later, however, it became clear that the OPEC countries did not stick to the agreement reached.
Obviously, Russia's response to the proposal has come precisely as a result of non-compliance with OPEC members' restrictions.
Many market experts comment that the depreciation of oil may recover after its last increase from the last week and again see a test at its lowest levels.

Petrol: Exports from the US is on 23-year high

The United States, a key consumer of oil, surely climb up the world rankings in terms of its largest exporters. According to the latest data last week, the country exported 1.03 million barrels per day of crude oil, which is a record high for the past 23 years. The average volume of exports during the first six weeks of 2017 amounted to 695,000 barrels per day against 450,000 during the same period last year.

US production is increasing, and demand is still low due to the fact that many processing plants were closed for maintenance, analysts say. Oil available for export, since the agreement of OPEC reduces supply of black gold, they added. In December 2015 the United States had canceled a law that did not allow to do so.

According to forecasts of experts, this year the average volume of exports of crude oil in the US will be 650,000 to 800,000 barrels per day, which is higher than production in December of OPEC members such as Libya, Qatar, Ecuador and Gabon.

The inverse correlation between oil and the US dollar was interrupted - Goldman

Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the inverse correlation between the rate of the US dollar and the price of oil has stopped.
Over the last month, both the assets significantly rose against the background of "significant events", the bank said in the review.
According to the analysts, the dynamics of the oil is particularly unusual, given the strong exchange rate of the American national currency.
Goldman Sachs analyst Jeff Currie believes that if Russia will freeze the oil production, it will probably happen by January-February 2017. OPEC's strategy to protect its market share has remained the same, he said in an interview with Bloomberg.

OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand, reduced production in May

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept the forecast for world oil demand in 2016 at 94.18 million barrels per day. This is stated in the June OPEC report. Thе forecast in demand for oil in 2016 compared to 2015 is also maintained at 1.2 million barrels per day.
The oil market has become closer to the balance between demand and supply earlier than expected - due to unplanned supply disruptions from Canada and Nigeria, said OPEC in their statement. The organization expects that the oversupply will continue to decline.
Oil managed to close in positive territory last week and stay for Brent up than 50 per barrel, while the same level of US WTI was not kept. In addition to the wave of the strengthening dollar, which started on Thursday, the oil is under pressure also by the statistics.
Oil remains in an upward channel, and just returns to the levels at the beginning of the month as part of a short-term correction.

Trend growth in January can be considered broken after a decline to 48.00-48.50. A drop below would start a new downwards trend in the next few months. Important support levels in this way, able to trigger further collapse (if they would be overcomed) will become 50-day moving average (now at 46.90) and the 200-day (now at 42.90). We must not forget also about the level that separates bullish from bearish market. In the last week it was 53.03 level.
20% drop from the peak is at 42.40. This is the level of "withdrawing" of medium-term long positions. If oil loses 20%, it would no longer limited to these losses, and it will go further down.
Thus, the development of the downward trend can be separated into several stages with following important support levels: 48.00, 47.00, 43.00. The area between them seem more "soft" - without serious obstacles.

Nordea: Oil prices hit the bottom

Oil prices have reached the bottom, assume analysts from Nordea Bank. According to their forecast, in the fourth quarter of 2016 Brent will cost about $50 per barrel, and for the full 2015 average price is $41 per barrel, reported Bloomberg. Quotations of the May futures for Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange increased by $1.1 (2.97%) - up to $38.17 per barrel.
Contract prices for WTI for April in electronic trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYMEX) at this time increased by $0.95 (2.75%) - up to $35.52 per barrel.
Meanwile, Azerbaijan supported the initiative of Russia and a number of OPEC members to freeze oil production in 2016.