Oil fell after the US can resort to its reserves

US oil fell back below the psychological limit of $71 a barrel. This became reality after Saudi Arabia warned it would raise its output for two of its clients in Asia. In addition, the US has said it can turn to its strategic reserves to stop the rise in fuel and oil prices.
Oil futures in New York lost 0.8% of their value after falling by 3.8% last week.
With the price of oil reaching a three-year high in the past month, fears that the trade war between the US and China will hurt the price of "black gold" have become serious.
The renewed sanctions against Iran, as well as the declining production from Venezuela, were factors that compensated to a certain extent the depreciation of the oil price.
OPEC and its partners have agreed that they can resort to an increase of more than 1 million barrels of oil if needed.
US crude oil is trading early in the morning at $70.50 a barrel.
Brent with delivery in September traded at a level of 74.96 dollars per barrel.

Brent rose to 3 and a half years maximum

Oil has risen again as a result of continued tensions in the Middle East region, which may have an impact on the supply of raw materials.
The Brent, with delivery next month, returned to the highest levels in the past three and a half years, adding 1.11 dollars, or 1.4% to its value, to a level of 78.23 dollars per barrel. This was the highest level of closure since November 2014.
The rise in US crude oil was not as remarkable as the raw material rose 26 cents, or 0.4 percent to a level of $70.96 a barrel.
Concerns about what's happening in the Middle East have made investors position themselves more in Brent oil.
Collisions between Palestinians and Israeli militaries in Gaza, leaving several dead protesters behind after a US Embassy in Jerusalem opened, have been largely underpinned by rising oil prices.
Last week, Brent rose 3% and US crude oil 1.4% as a result of Trump's decision to abandon the agreement with Iran on the country's nuclear program.

Oil recovers some of its losses

Oil rose yesterday, backed by the well-known recovery in stock markets and a result of purchases by speculators who thought growth was excessive.
Brent futures added 48 cents yesterday, or 0.7 percent to $68.12 a barrel, trading at $68.45 a barrel earlier this morning.
Brent's upgrading became a reality after nearly a 4 per cent decline on Monday, the biggest since June.
The sharp decline in oil has happened after Brent reached the highest value this year at $71 a barrel in the past week.
US crude oil futures rose 50 cents, or 0.8 percent to 63.51 dollars a barrel.

Oil rises for the third quarter, for the first time since 2010

Oil rose and traded more than $70 a barrel for a third consecutive day as a result of backing tensions around the Middle East. And while oil production grows fast, investors remain cautious.
Brent added 28 cents, or 70.4 dollars a barrel, while US crude rose 19 cents to 65.74 dollars a barrel.
Oil prices rose by more than 7 percent since the beginning of the month, following an increase of 5.3 percent in the first three months of the year. This allows it to register a third consecutive quarter of growth, something the market has not seen since 2010.
Geopolitical tensions and expectations of trade wars largely support the cost of raw material.
Brent traded at levels above $70 a barrel for the second time this year, from the end of 2014. Experts say this high oil price may not last too long.

OPEC disputes

These days the oil segment has received a new food for thought, which makes players think about longer-term prospects for black gold. In particular, within OPEC there were contradictions in the question of the relevant price. Iran's oil minister believes that the cartel should support quotes at around $60 per barrel, explaining this by the fact that higher levels will lead to an even more active increase in production in the US shale fields. According to some estimates, if the average price of oil is $70, next year, Americans will produce 600 thousand barrels per day more.
Meanwhile, his Saudi colleague stands for oil at $70. Recall that the kingdom pursues its internal interests - the government needs larger oil revenues to finance large-scale economic reforms and IPO of the state oil giant Saudi Aramco. By the way, recently there were rumors that the initial public offering of the company's shares will be postponed to 2019, which means that Saudi Arabia will fight for higher prices longer than previously thought.
The emerging split in the cartel does not predict good news for energy prices. If Iran finds like-minded people in its initiative, which implies easing of restrictions in the deal, high discipline in the format of OPEC+ may be threatened. Then the level of $70 per barrel, above which Brent did not rise since the beginning of February, will become illusory for the market if the Saudis do not take measures that will strongly impress buyers or there will not be a large-scale supply disruption on a geopolitical basis.

Oil began the week with growth

Oil prices rose on Monday morning when recovering on Asian stock markets, as well as amid tensions in the Middle East.
Futures for the North Sea blend Brent climbed 0.79 percent to $65.35 a barrel.
Futures contracts for US light oil WTI by this time traded at $62.37 per barrel, which is 1.12 percent higher than the previous close.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel is ready to act not only against Iran's Middle Eastern allies, but also against Tehran, if it continues to actively intervene in the conflict in Syria.
Among the factors holding back the further rise of the market, analysts call the rapid growth of oil production in the US.
According to the calculations of the Energy Information Administration (EIA), weekly production of raw material in the US rose to a historic high of 10.27 million barrels per day for the week by February 9.
In addition, the number of installations for drilling oil wells in the US last week increased by 7 pieces to 798 - the highest value since April 2015, the data of the oil service company Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

Oil will drop after OPEC meeting?

Comments on the OPEC meeting sent the price of the Brent upward over the past week, but hedge funds saw a good opportunity to reduce their exposure to oil.
The latter cut their bullish bets on the Brent, taking advantage of the raw material growth.
Forecasts have shown that it is possible for the price of oil to fall significantly after the OPEC meeting, similar to what happened earlier this year.
The Brent is traded close to its highest value in two years before the OPEC meeting, which will be held on 30 November in Vienna. The Cartel and Russia are expected to extend their production cuts by the end of next year.
According to market observers, however, OPEC and Russia are still working on smoothing the conditions for the future continuation of the current conditions.
Market participants still remember what happened in May before the OPEC meeting. Oil futures rose 10% before the decision after which the price dropped seriously after disclosure of the redundancies.
Still, there are still many investors who believe that oil can continue to rise, at least until the OPEC meeting.

Did the oil reach its peak?

Oil fell yesterday as prospects for further rising of raw material prices met with expectations of a rise in US production. The US producers seem to increase their production in light of the recent rise in the price of "black gold."
Brent futures are at a level of $62.94 a barrel, or a decline of 22 cents, or 0.35% since their last closing. US crude oil lost 14 cents to $56.62 a barrel.
Decline became a reality after oil reached its highest levels since 2015 in the past week. Since then, however, the raw material has lost some moment in its movement.
US production has risen by more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to a record 9.62 million barrels per day.
From the beginning of the year to the present, the average price of the Brent is at a level of 54.5 dollars per barrel.
Many traders forecast for a drop in oil prices from now on, following expectations of further US production growth.
OPEC has raised its forecast for next year's demand growth of 360,000 barrels a day, against previous expectations in July.

Oil at its highest levels for several months

Oil ended the last day of last week with an increase of nearly 1%, or to its highest value in a few months. This happened after OPEC countries decided after their meeting in Vienna that they would wait until January before deciding on their production cuts.
Brent ended last week with an increase of 43 cents, or by 0.8% to a level of 56.86 dollars a barrel. This is very close to the highest raw material values since September, commented market observers.
Brent received further impetus from Nigeria's presence at the meeting and comments from the country's minister that despite the fact that Nigeria was excluded from OPEC's production cuts, it actually produced less oil.
US crude oil finished with raise by 11 cents on Friday, or by 0.2 percent to a level of $50.66 a barrel. Continuous trading of the raw material over $50 a barrel causes many market participants to be positive about its future growth.
For the week, Brent added 2.2% while US crude rose by 1.5%.
For the past three months, oil has risen by more than 15 percent, which is evidence that the cut-off of OPEC production, by 1.8 million barrels a day, has its expected impact.

Oil falls again

Oil recovers from its recent losses and returned momentarily at trading levels of over $50 a barrel. The reason for this was the positive attitude among traders after worse than expected oil reserves in the United States for the past week.
US crude futures rose by 23 cents yesterday to $49.84 a barrel. Brent's October futures added 38 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $ 52.74 a barrel.
Rising crude prices, however, were not lasting, and it resumed its decline again, with US crude trading at 48.80 dollars a barrel earlier this morning.
So oil returned again over its 200-day moving average at $49.45 a barrel, which is accepted by technical analysts as a very negative signal for the future direction.

Oil collapsed last week

Oil prices dropped severely last week after Russia rejected OPEC's offer to reduce production.
US crude oil lost nearly 3 percent of its value, a similar decrease was also noted with the price of the Brent.
In May, OPEC, along with Russia, decided to continue its production cuts by the first quarter of next year.
A little later, however, it became clear that the OPEC countries did not stick to the agreement reached.
Obviously, Russia's response to the proposal has come precisely as a result of non-compliance with OPEC members' restrictions.
Many market experts comment that the depreciation of oil may recover after its last increase from the last week and again see a test at its lowest levels.

GS lowered its oil price forecast

Goldman Sachs, the state-owned investment bank, has lowered its oil price forecast, reckoning its expectations of increased US yields that would offset the impact of OPEC's production cuts.
The bank predicts an average oil price of $55.39 per barrel, this year, against previous expectations of $56.76 per barrel.
GS also announced this year's average crude oil crude price at $52.92 a barrel, against a background of their previous forecast of $54.80 per barrel.
They believe that they are in a long-term downward trend for oil, with evidence of an increase in oil supply.
Oil fell slightly on Tuesday, with the Brent trading at levels of $51.80 when the news came out, and US crude oil at $49.50 for a barrel.
According to bank's analysts, industry focuses from long-term cycles, to short-term ones.

Oil is down, showing the maximum quarterly decline from 2015

Oil prices declined on Friday, interrupting the three-day rally, due to fears of investors that the growth in reserves and drilling activity in the US is offsetting the decline in OPEC+ production.
By 14.29 GMT, futures for Brent crude fell by 0.68 percent to $52.60 per barrel.
Futures for American oil WTI by this time were traded at $50.11 per barrel, 0.48 percent lower than the previous closing.
Prices for both benchmarks fell by almost 7 percent compared to the previous quarter - this is the worst indicator since the end of 2015.
The growth of drilling activity and oil reserves in the US undermines the efforts of OPEC and non-cartel states that previously agreed to reduce oil production during the first half of the year by a total of 1.8 million barrels per day.
Nevertheless, despite the OPEC+ pact, the market remains oversaturated, which is why most market players believe that the agreement will be extended to the second half of 2017.
One of the reasons that OPEC and miners outside the club can extend the agreement is the desire to support oil prices.

The game of the central banks

A week after Brexit markets are still in a state of turbulence. The first euphoria designated by central bank's support measures are gradually coming to "no", the sellers return to the market, and the demand for protective assets once again are at a record level. As a result, the yield on the thirty-year US Treasury bonds renewed historical minimum and they are now trading at 2.13%, oil quotes have gone below $50 per barrel (Brent), under pressure were the emerging markets, as well as the British pound.
One of the most important upcoming events for the markets is the meeting of the Committee on the open market of the US Federal Reserve on 26-27 July. Although the markets do not believe in a rate hike at the next meeting, extremely high attention will be drawn on what would Yellen say in her comments. If market expectations will meet and the Fed will adjust their plans to tighten monetary policy, the trend in the reduction of interest rates on the long end of the curve will continue, but the demand for risky assets will start to grow again. Otherwise, we may see a correction.
It is necessary to pay attention to the statistics coming out. The June's PMI in almost all developed countries are above 50, which means that the industry expects growth in demand. It is, first of all, a positive signal for commodity prices and for the emerging economies. "The Big Spoil" is China, where the fourth month in a row on the contrary we see a decline in PMI. But Chinese risk is largely incorporated in the prices of assets and is unlikely to be "trigger" of sales, in the conditions when the central bank poured liquidity to the market.

OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand, reduced production in May

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept the forecast for world oil demand in 2016 at 94.18 million barrels per day. This is stated in the June OPEC report. Thе forecast in demand for oil in 2016 compared to 2015 is also maintained at 1.2 million barrels per day.
The oil market has become closer to the balance between demand and supply earlier than expected - due to unplanned supply disruptions from Canada and Nigeria, said OPEC in their statement. The organization expects that the oversupply will continue to decline.
Oil managed to close in positive territory last week and stay for Brent up than 50 per barrel, while the same level of US WTI was not kept. In addition to the wave of the strengthening dollar, which started on Thursday, the oil is under pressure also by the statistics.
Oil remains in an upward channel, and just returns to the levels at the beginning of the month as part of a short-term correction.

Trend growth in January can be considered broken after a decline to 48.00-48.50. A drop below would start a new downwards trend in the next few months. Important support levels in this way, able to trigger further collapse (if they would be overcomed) will become 50-day moving average (now at 46.90) and the 200-day (now at 42.90). We must not forget also about the level that separates bullish from bearish market. In the last week it was 53.03 level.
20% drop from the peak is at 42.40. This is the level of "withdrawing" of medium-term long positions. If oil loses 20%, it would no longer limited to these losses, and it will go further down.
Thus, the development of the downward trend can be separated into several stages with following important support levels: 48.00, 47.00, 43.00. The area between them seem more "soft" - without serious obstacles.

Nordea: Oil prices hit the bottom

Oil prices have reached the bottom, assume analysts from Nordea Bank. According to their forecast, in the fourth quarter of 2016 Brent will cost about $50 per barrel, and for the full 2015 average price is $41 per barrel, reported Bloomberg. Quotations of the May futures for Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange increased by $1.1 (2.97%) - up to $38.17 per barrel.
Contract prices for WTI for April in electronic trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYMEX) at this time increased by $0.95 (2.75%) - up to $35.52 per barrel.
Meanwile, Azerbaijan supported the initiative of Russia and a number of OPEC members to freeze oil production in 2016.