Gold slows down its decline

Gold fell on Friday after interest on US bonds rose. Losses, however, were limited by the weakness of the stock market and the dollar, which declined due to the uncertainty surrounding the US tax reform.
Increases in US bond interest rates have put pressure on gold, reducing the attractiveness of the metal.
The spot price of gold fell 0.7 percent to 1 275.6 dollars per ounce at the end of the week. It reached the highest value of $1,288 on Thursday, prompting analysts and traders to talk again at $1,300 or even more.
However, it was quickly overcome on Friday and almost all of the growth was offset.
Gold futures with delivery in December fell by 13.3 dollars, or 1% to 1 274.20 dollars per ounce.

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The Australian Bank kept interest rates, sent the Australian dollar down

The Australian Central Bank kept interest rates at a record low for the 14th time.
However, this may soon change, given the central bank's forecast for a 3% growth over the next few years and a fall in unemployment from its current levels at 5.5%.
Far more cautious, however, was the tone of the central bank in terms of consumption and inflation.
For the last time, the Australian bank lowered interest rates in August 2016 in order to protect itself against the risk of deflation. The Bank is still facing serious difficulties in returning consumer price growth back to levels of 2-3%.
Inflation rose to only 1.8% in the third quarter of the year, but even this looks pretty high in the short term.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), built-in inflation is actually about 1.6%.
The futures market does not expect an increase in interest rates in Australia until early 2019. All of this reflects extremely negatively on the Australian dollar, which dropped to 0.7636 against the US or its lowest value since the beginning of July.

What's on Forex Today?

The third day of the week will begin with data on China's imports, exports and trade balance. The latter is expected to recover from $ 28.5 to $ 29.5 billion in October.
Early in the morning, forecast data for leading and matched indicators will be exported from Japan.
The first data from Europe will relate to France's current account and trade balance.
Followed by industrial production in Spain, which is projected to grow by 2.5% yoy in September.
At 11:30, the Polish central bank's decision on interest rates will happen. It is expected to remain at 1.5% yoy.
The first US data will be related to the MBA index for mortgage credit applications, followed by the results for home construction and construction permits in Canada, as well as US oil reserves.
The day will end with New Zealand's central bank decision on interest rates. It is expected to be maintained at a level of 1.75% on an annual basis.

Gold returns some of its glitter

Gold went back above $ 1,270 per ounce yesterday after stabilizing in the dollar. This led to a recovery in interest in the precious metal after a third consecutive week of decline.
But the price is still under pressure from expectations of a new Fed interest rate increase next month.
The spot price of gold was trading early this morning at $ 1,278 per ounce, while metal futures with delivery in December rose to $ 1,280 per ounce.
The dollar stabilized on Monday after its biggest weekly rise this year.
The fact that Trump is on a visit to Asia can re-focus North Korea to support the price of the noble metal, according to market observers.
Gold has fallen over the past weeks, back by 2.5 percent of its peak in mid-October, with Fed rising expectations for a further rise in interest rates in December.

The Trump Rally is the fourth best since the 1936's

Since the election of Donald Trump as president last November, the US indices enjoyed a very good performance.
And while the growth of over 20% for the S & P 500 index and 30% for the Dow blue chip index, sending indexes to new records is far from being their best performance compared to modern US presidents.
According to data from the US investment bank Goldman Sachs, the rise in US elections after Trump's election victory is the fourth best since 1936. With a better performance for such a period of election victory, the markets were distinct during presidents George Bush, John Kennedy and Bill Clinton.
The market rally after Clinton's 1996 election victory raises the S & P 500 from nearly 30% a year and over 50% over the next 24 months. This is the biggest rise after a presidential election victory.
It can also be argued about the motives behind the growth of the market. To a large extent, the current one is predetermined by the hopes for tax reforms that will mainly ease major US corporations.
However, as Goldman mentions, shares of companies that are expected to benefit most from tax reform have been worse off the market as a whole this year.
In addition, there are warnings, including from the US Treasury Secretary, that if the tax reform is not adopted, we may see a substantial fall in stock prices.

OPEC starts talking about $70 a barrel

At a meeting in May, several oil ministers from OPEC countries spoke positively of a $50 oil price. This, however, is unlikely to happen at the upcoming cartel meeting. With rising raw materials in recent weeks, the "fair price" for oil will probably rise for the cartel countries.
The Brent, which has been rising since June, has already breached the psychological level of $ 60 a barrel for the first time since July 2015.
According to OPEC, the fair price for oil is almost always slightly above the current price. So by crossing the $ 60 limit, no wonder this fair price would be $ 70 a barrel.
At the end of October, the Qatari energy minister said oil is moving in the right direction, even in a pricing environment of about $ 60. According to Venezuela, the "fair price" of oil is $ 70 a barrel, while according to Iraq these are between 70 and 80 dollars per barrel.
From Russia, however, they are already showing signs of anxiety over the too rapid and sharp rise in oil prices. According to them, levels of 60 dollars would be justified and a good reward for the production cuts in which Russia is also involved.

Weak property growth in the UK

Property prices in the UK maintain their weak growth in October this year. Compared to the same month last year, properties rose by 2.5%. The range of raise is similar to that of the beginning of the year.
The rise in property prices in the UK has slowed down significantly over the past year as a result of the uncertainty associated with BREXIT.
Property grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis, which was a serious slowdown compared to the first half of the year.
Low interest rates and steady levels of employment give some relief to the demand for real estate.
On the other hand, the uncertainty associated with BREXIT and the conditions for leaving the Union can be factors that aggravate the situation for the property market.
The decision of the central bank this week to raise interest rates may have a further negative impact on the properties.
Property buyers and mortgage lenders are already adjusting their finances in a line that fits the interest rate hike.

US indexes with new records, Fed hinted at a December rate hike

Fully expected, Fed retained interest rates yesterday after the two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. This led to a rise for US indices, with the S&P 500 broad index closed up by 0.16%, to 2 579.36 points.
The Dow Jones blue chip index rose by 140 points at one point, but eventually ended with an increase of 57 points to a level of 23,435 points.
Technological Nasdaq lagged behind its performance, down by 0.2 percent to 6,716.53 points, driven by a 1.3 percent decline in Apple's stock.
Fed responded to the average market expectations and kept the interest rate unchanged. Only 1.5% of analysts forecasted higher interest rates. But the Fed has left the door open for December's interest rate hike. Expectations for this are already nearly 100%, according to CME's FedWatch.

The bitcoin takes one-third of Bill Miller's fund

Former Legg Mason's hedge fund manager, Bill Miller, manages a fund about one-third of whose assets are invested in bitcoins, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Miller's fund MVP 1 earned 72.5% from the beginning of the year, thanks to the bitcoin, bought average by 3500 dollars.
For comparison, yesterday, the bitcoin was traded at $6,100, or Miller's investment yielded a 1 600% return.
Miller, however, advises investors not to buy the cryptocurrency at its current high levels. This despite the fact that its fund has raised its investment by 5%, up to 30% in the bitcoin.
Portfolio manager has a good history. While managing one of the Legg Mason funds, he managed to beat the broad S&P 500 index for 15 consecutive years until 2005. Miller left the company in August 2016, after a career spanning 35 years.
Miller said he would not buy more bitcoins for his fund at current prices, but advised anyone who does not have cryptocurrency to invest 1% of his liquid funds there.
For comparison, since the beginning of the year, the broad S&P 500 index has risen by about 15%. The index, following the hedge fund performance, added 5.9% by the end of the third quarter.
The strong appreciation of bitcoin attracts more and more funds that invest in them. The number of funds investing in digital currencies has already risen to 124.