Happy New Year 2016!

Happy New Year 2016!


I sincerely wish you to have fun and laugh, nothing on offense, live easily and without worries all the coming new year.

Enjoy every moment and give your warmth, be always positive, always be lucky in everything!

Happy New Year 2016! 

Daily technical analysis for December 31

The US dollar kept it's positions against the basket of major currencies at the beginning of today's Asian session. Rising yields on US bonds on Tuesday supported the green money, which remained at around 1.0863 against the euro, as seen on H1 chart. The dollar index remained near weekly highs, and it is about to record a growth of 11% for the 2015 year.

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Daily technical analysis for December 28

EUR/USD

Euro/dollar was volatile last week. As you can see the H4 chart, the price is moving sideways between 1.0800 - 1.1060 after the bullish rally from 1.0520. The bias is neutral in nearest term, probably with slight bullish signals for testing 1.1060. A clear break and daily close above that level could trigger further bullish pressure testing the trend line resistance area 1.1150 - 1.1180, which is a good place for a short position with tight stop loss. Immediate support is seen at 1.0940. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0870 but key support remains at 1.0800, which should be clearly pierced down a potential end to the upward phase. My major technical outlook remains neutral.

Forecasts of Deutsche Bank for 2016

Forex strategists of Deutsche Bank analyzed prospects for some major currency pairs for 2016.

The British pound is likely to remain vulnerable against the dollar, because it will suffer from political uncertainty associated with membership in the European Union. Probably the pair GBP/USD will move in the range of 1.35 to 1.40, with the potential to test the lower limit of this range.

Against the yen, the dollar is expected to show limited progress, and it's possible, that it will form maximum level around 130.00. Break above this limit, however, is almost impossible, according to the Deutsche Bank.

The forecasts on EUR/USD provide levels around 0.9500 at the end of the year, above the previous expectations for a falling to 0.9000. Some risk factors, such as China, can disrupt the green money to rise more intense.

Merry Christmas!

Strong start for the euro at the beginning of the new week

During the first day of the week the single currency presented excellent against the major currencies on a day poor in important economic data.
Trade volumes are expected to remain low this week due to the upcoming holidays.

On Monday, the dollar showed signs of instability, to a large extent this was due to the latest trading session in which oil has undergone serious declines in value. Oil prices fell to their lowest levels since 2004, which had an extremely negative impact on the currencies of the so-called emerging markets.

During the last day the dollar index, which measures the performance of the green money against a basket of six currencies, fell by nearly 0.25% to 99.47 points.

The euro continued to raise against the dollar, registering the second consecutive trading session in green. The currency pair EUR/USD increased in value by 59 pips to 1.0914. Meanwhile, the single currency reported its strongest daily performance against the British pound from nine sessions, adding nearly 50 pips to its value, ending the day at 0.7331.

Japanese Yen traded in a narrow range against the US dollar in the range of 120.83 to 121.50, closing at 121.18.

The British pound was once again one of the weakest performing currency, falling by 0.2% against the US dollar to 1.4884.

Barclays: EUR/USD will trade in a range, so sell GBP/USD

Forex strategists at Barclays warned that the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain closed in the range until the end of the year as key statistics already published, and the main risks, or namely the meetings of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are behind us.
In 2016, however, the single currency retains its considerable downside potential, given the differences in monetary policies of the US and the Eurozone. Term inflation expectations in Europe again weaken and analysts at Barclays not preclude regulators to take further stimulus.
For the coming week, experts at Barclays advised their clients to consider selling GBP against the US dollar.
It is the final calculations of the gross domestic product of the United Kingdom for the third quarter to be disappointing. Should not be ignored and the risks associated with the upcoming referendum on the withdrawal of Britain from the European Union.
Technical strategists at Barclays provide GBP/USD to reach the area of ​​1.4855 in the near future. In the long term it is projected to fall to 1.4565.

Deutsche Bank: The strengthening of the dollar will continue for another two years

According to Alan Ruskin and George Saravelos, FX strategists at Deutsche Bank, multiannual cycle of the strengthening of the dollar will continue for another two years.

For the period we expect, that the dollar index, which measures the performance of the "green money" against a basket of six other currencies to rise by another 10%.

What lies ahead in 2016 depends mostly on where will focus the attention of the investors. If they rely on Fed policy, the rise of the dollar is likely to be slow and wide, spreading evenly to the currencies of the Big Four, commodity currencies and currencies of developing countries.

If, however, the spotlights go onto China and its monetary policy becomes a source of instability, the dollar will advance more against commodity currencies and currencies of developing countries, than against its competitors from developed countries.
Against this background, by Deutsche Bank adjusted upward its forecast for EUR /USD rate at the end of 2016, expected levels of $0.95 with $0.90 previous forecast.

Markets welcomed the rise in interest rates by the Fed

The US Federal Reserve increased by 25 basis points the interest rates on federal funds from 0,25 to 00,50% points and ended the seven-year policy of low interest rates. The markets predicted about 84% likely to happen and their reaction was positive. The major highlights of the event are: the Fed predict for the end of 2016 interest rates to reach 1.375%, which means new four increases in interest rates in 2016. According to the Fed, the economy recorded steady progress, there is still what to expected from the labor market. The current 5% level of unemployment is close to medium-term forecast levels. Net exports are hampered by the strong dollar and the construction of new homes has slowed. Investment in the business have increased and economic risks from abroad has decreased since the summer. The strong dollar and weaker oil have influenced inflation and once these factors weaken, it should reach 2%.


The importance of the first raising of interest rates should not be overestimated, as the Fed acknowledged that it takes time to show the new policy effect. According to Janet Yellen gradually raising of interest rates is needed, faster growth or faster rise in inflation would lead to fast raising of interest rates from the Fed, and that slowing growth and inflation will lead to slowdown the increase.

TD Securities: The markets underestimate the consequences of raising US interest rates

Many experts predict a "soft" increase in US interest rates after today's meeting of the Federal Reserve, but analysts at TD Securities pledged in favor of the growth of anti-risk sentiment.

Regulators will probably increase its economic forecasts, and investors will begin to calculate faster tightening of monetary policy  prices than currently foreseen, according to the TD Securities.

Although the dollar has been in the upward movement for a long time, strategists believe, that it still holds potential growth. But experts do not advise their clients to carry out purchases of USD/JPY, and propose instead to consider sales of EUR/USD.

The strategists of TD Securities retained its forecast rate of EUR/USD from $1.03 in the first quarter of 2016.

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD for December/15

EUR/USD did not make significant movement yesterday, but basically still manages to keep the bullish bias. Signals remain up in the near future to test 1.1100 before triggering the trend line resistance, as can be seen in the chart. Immediate support is seen at 1.0980. A clear break below it can take the price to neutral trading zone testing 1.0925 but as long as price remains above 1.0800, I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase. From a fundamental perspective, the focus today will be on the data of the ZEW economic sentiment in Germany and consumer prices in the US, but the most important event this week will be the Fed's decision on a possible rise in interest rates for the first time since 2006.

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GBP and CHF - rates remain unchanged

On Thursday there was the meeting of the Central Bank of Switzerland, which surprisingly kept its interest rate of -0.75%. The Swiss franc rose against the euro to 1.0806, but fell against the dollar to 0.9877.

From the meeting of the Bank of England became clear that the main interest rate in the country remained at 0.5%, only one of the board members voted for an increase to 0.75%. Last month, from a statement by Mark Carney became clear that interest rates could be kept unchanged for a long time. The pound rose against the euro but recorded losses against the dollar to 1.5158 and Japanese yen to 184.23.

Strong growth of the euro against the US dollar on Wednesday

The single currency rose above 1.10 against the dollar for the first time in a month as investors prepare for a possible increase in interest rates in the US, according to surveys already has nearly a 90% chance to occur.
The currency pair EUR/USD climbed to 1.1023, increasing 1.23% for the day. The daily range was between 1.0879 and 1.1042. Last week the euro has climbed up by over 5% against the US dollar. The single currency rose against the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc and 1.5246 respectively and 1.0837.

Daily technical analysis for December/9

EUR/USD

The single currency registered an increase against the dollar on Tuesday. The session started at 1.0836 and ended 54 pips higher. After steady upward movement the price managed to break the first resistance at 1.0854. If the couple justify positive expectations, the price will continue its upward movement.

Support: 1.0854; 1.0676; 1.0548;

Resistance: 1.0975;

GBP/USD

The pair continued to lose value for the third consecutive session on Tuesday. The pound lost 48 pips and ended at a price of 1.5006. The graphics continue to develop under the moving average, while the relative strength index remained in neutral territory. The outlook remains negative and immediate goal appears to 1.4877.

Support: 1.4877;

Resistance: 1.5017; 1.5125; 1.5230;

USD/JPY

The dollar recorded a slight decrease against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday. The pair opened at a rate of 123.35 and finished 43 pips lower. The graph moves below moving averages, while the relative strength index remained in neutral territory. If prices continue to fall, the pair will test the first support at 122.61.

Support: 122.61; 121.50; 120.85;

Resistance: 123.67;

Goldman Sachs still expect parity in EUR/USD

The forex strategists of Goldman Sachs revised upwards their forecast for the euro, but still expect it to reach parity with the dollar in the next 12 months.
However, the downward movement will not be as steep as it was assumed before the meeting of the European Central Bank in early December.

From Goldman Sachs reviewed quarterly expectations for EUR/USD of $1.02 to $1.07, semi - from $1.00 to $1.05, and 12-month - from $0.95 to $1.00.

In EUR/GBP quarterly, six-month and 12-month forecast was revised from £0.69 of £0.71, from £0.67 of £0.70 and £0.65 of £0.68. At the end of 2017 the expected level is £0.65, instead of the previously computed £0.57.

In EUR/CHF the forecast for the end of 2017 has been revised upwards by SFr1.10 to SFr1.15.

Daily technical analysis for GBP/USD for December 7-th

GBP/USD remains in a sideways movement.

We expect a tense week for the multitude of news from the UK. The most important will be the decision on interest rates. Interest rate expectations are unchanged, but we'll get more clear details about the led monetary policy. This will give us any clearness when we can expect an increase.

On Saturday David Cameron has expressed concerns that he may need to start a campaign for exit of the UK from the European Union. This would happen if the negotiations with Brussels fail.

Important news from the UK:
Monday 17:00 (Speech by M. Carney)
Tuesday 11:30 (industrial production)
Thursday 11:30 (Balance), 14:00 (Decision of Interest)

The rise we see on the daily chart, stopped on the middle line of Bollinger. It seems the bulls regroup to test the top from the Thursday of 1.5158. Crossing and closing above this level and above the trend line that connects the last two maximums,  will show us that the rise is likely to continue. There is a esistance round the level of 1.5200.

Morgan Stanley: Sell EUR/USD after the Fed meeting

The European Central Bank disappointed markets by lowering rates on deposits with 0.10% and extending the program for acquisition of assets, but does not increase its volume. There wasn't even a hint that interest rates will continue to fall, noted forex strategist at Morgan Stanley.
EUR/USD will probably record an upward movement by the meeting of the Federal Reserve in mid-December, which will liquidate part of recently accumulated short positions. Bullish factor is the lack of expectations for new stimulus in the Eurozone.
In the medium term, however, experts of Morgan Stanley remain bearish on the united currency and plan to resume purchases of dollars after the Fed meeting. After the new reduction in rates, the role of the euro as a funding currency will strengthen, according to the strategists.

Daily technical analysis for December 3-d

EUR/USD

EUR/USD recorded moderate losses on Wednesday after a relatively volatile session. The pair traded within outliers at 1.0635 and 1.0551, and ultimately the euro lost 20 pips to a closing price of 1.0612. Currently, the prospects seem neutral, the movement managed to establish a range within 1.0640 and 1.0560. A break of one of the levels will suggest a prevailing sentiment.

Support: 1.0560; 1.0520; 1.0460;

Resistance:: 1.0640; 1.0690; 1.0805;

GBP/USD

The British pound broke a two-day winning streak yesterday, recording a significant losses against the dollar. The pair failed to overcome the levels at 1.5100, which led it 130 pips lower at a price of 1.4950. A bottom for the session noted at 1.4897, which was the lowest value since the end of April. The index of relative strength and moving averages confirm the dominance of the bears.

Support: 1.4910; 1.4830;

Resistance:: 1.4990; 1.5105; 1.5230;

USD/JPY

The pair recorded growth on Wednesday, and the dollar managed to add 38 pips to the opening price of 123.23. The session was held in the extreme values at 123.66 and 122.82. The price went above the average values, while the index of relative strength gain positions, but the couple could not overcome the upper limit of its recent range.

Support: 122.20; 121.30; 120.05;

Resistance:: 123.75; 124.50; 125.30;

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD for December 2-nd

EUR/USD

EUR/USD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0637. The signals are up at short term for testing 1.0650 and the resistance trend line, which is a good place for short positions with targets near 1.0500 with tight stop losses over the trend line, as you can see in the hourly graphics. We have immediate support at 1.0600. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral trading zone testing 1.0550 or lower. On the upside, a clear break and daily close above the resistance trend line could trigger further upside correction and testing of the key resistance 1.0800. The fundamental focus will be on Draghi press conference tomorrow and employment data from the US on Friday.

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD for December 1-st

EUR/USD

Euro/dollar was volatile last week, but overall still manages to retain the bearish signals, moving below the trend line of the resistance and below the 200 EMA, as seen on the hourly chart. My expectations are neutral for now. We see intraday support around 1.0565, with potential double bottom formation. A clear break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.0500. Resistance for the day is 1.0605, whose breach could cause upside pressure testing the trend line resistance and the 1.0650 - 1.0700  region, which remains a good place for sales with tight stops losses over the trend line with target - 1.0500. The CCI(14) indicator also gives a strong signal for sales. Basically I stay in the camp of bears.