Donald Trump stopped the rise of markets

This week began with sales on both sides of the Atlantic amid decree signed by President Donald Trump, who imposed a ban on entry into the United States of refugees coming from seven mainly Muslim countries.
The German Dax 30 fell by 1.12% closing at 11 681.89 points. The top three losers in the index were Thyssenkrupp AG with a daily decline of 3.61%, followed by RWE AG ST and Deutsche Bank AG respectively with 3.34% and 2.97%.
UniCredit announced today that it will not meet the requirements of the European Central Bank in 2016 and the company's shares fell by more than 5.4 percent.
FTSE100 also recorded a decline of 0.92%, and ended the daily trading at a level of 7 118.48 points.
CAC40 closed at 4784.64 points wiping new 1.14% of its value.
Overseas situation was similar, as Dow Jones closed at red territory lowering its value by 0.61%, closing at 19971.13 points.
US data showed growth in personal income in December by 0.3% MoM, which was below expectations of 0.4%.
The broader index SP500 fell by 0.60%, closing the day at 2 280.25 points.
Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.83% and closed the session at 5 613.71 points.

EUR/USD: A rise to 1.0740 is expected

On Monday, the euro trading ended slightly down. Despite falling to the level of 1,0620, eurobulls managed to partially restore the daily losses. The single currency fell against the dollar on the statements of the representative of the ECB Ewald Nowotny. He said that Brexit can lead to significant problems, and that the ECB will not discuss QE decrease until the autumn. The price in the American session returned to the level of 1.0709.
The ECB President Mario Draghi will have a speach today and Europe will publish preliminary data on GDP for the fourth quarter. The speaches of Draghi at the press conference after the ECB meeting usually has a strong influence.
On Tuesday it will begin a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. It is expected that the regulator will keep rates unchanged. The event is important for the markets, but it is unlikely to have a strong impact.
In this regard, the forecast for Tuesday is for decrease to the area of ​​1.0661 and a rise to 1.0740. According to the technical analysis of the intraday outlook: minimum for the day - 1.0662, maximum - 1.0740, closing - 1.0710.

Canadian dollar rises

On Monday, the Canadian dollar rose against its US counterpart. However, the increase was restrained by lower oil prices and a reaction to the immigration decree of the President of the USA Donald Trump.
USD/CAD fell by 0.13% to 1.3136, near the session low at 1.3118.
US Dollar decreased after the publication of the decree of Trump on Friday, limiting entry to the USA to citizens of seven Muslim countries. This decree renewed concerns about the potentially destabilizing impact of protectionist policies implemented by the new administration.

Trump decree was appealed in court, it caused international criticism, mass protests and chaos at airports.
Another negative factor for the dollar was also a sharp decline in US GDP in the fourth quarter. It would be an argument for the Fed in favor of a more gradual increase in interest rates.

The dollar fell moderately to US stats

US dollar fell slightly against major currencies on Thursday after the release of weak economic data in the US, while the expectations of rate hikes the Fed this year and hope that the policy of Donald Trump will support growth of the US and, consequently, the global economy, continues to support demand for the US currency.
Real US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the first estimate, is 1.9% on an annualized basis, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Ministry of Trade. The data were worse than forecasts of analysts, who had expected GDP growth of 2.2%.
In the first quarter of 2016 US GDP growth in annual terms amounted 0.8%, in the second quarter - 1.4%, in the third - 3.5%.
Meanwile the real growth in US consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter slowed to 2.5% from 3% the previous quarter.
USD index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, is traded in the red below 100.40.

The dollar is trading close to a 7-week low

The dollar is trading close to a 7-week low against a basket of other major currencies amid lingering concerns about the protectionist policies of Donald Trump.
The US Dollar Index, which shows the value of the dollar to a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies rose by 0.9% to 100.01 (after yesterday's low of 99.77 - the lowest value since December 8).
The decline of the dollar index reflects a concern about the uncertain Trump's economic policy, as well as fears that his protectionist stance can reduce corporate earnings and become a brake on economic growth.
On Wednesday, Trump confirmed plans to build a wall on the border with Mexico and has taken preparatory measures to combat illegal immigration.
The dollar rose against the yen: USD/JPY rose by 0.32% to 113.66, holding above a 7-week low of 112.51, recorded on Tuesday.
EUR/USD is down by 0.12% to 1.0737, close to a 7-week low of 1.0773 on Tuesday.
Pound updated 7-week high against the dollar. GBP/USD has risen by 0.21% to 1.2660.

The British pound rose to a 7-week high

The British pound rose to a 7-week high against the US dollar on news that British economic growth rates have exceeded forecasts in the fourth quarter.
GBP/USD pair peaked at 1.2673, which was the highest value since December 14, rising to 1.2634.
According to the National Statistical Service of the United Kingdom the gross domestic product grew in the fourth quarter by 0.6%, which exceeded the forecast value (0.5%) and repeated the values from the third quarter.
Hopes for certainty about the Brexit also contributed to the growth of the pound. The UK Government has stated that in the purpose of the approval by the Parliament, it will publish on Thursday a preliminary version of the decision on application of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (formally run out of the EU exit procedure).

The dollar fell because of concerns about Trump's protectionist measures

The dollar was held near seven-week lows in Asian trade on Tuesday under pressure from investors' concerns about the possible impact of protectionist position on trade of the US President Donald Trump.
The dollar index by 5.20 GMT increased by 0.1 percent to 100.070 after falling to 99.899 on Monday - the lowest level since Dec. 8.
The dollar against the yen gained 0.1 percent to 112.78, but earlier reached the level of 112.52 - the lowest level since 30 November, much below the maximum of 114.45, reached at night.
Trump on Monday formally brought the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TTP), distancing America from its Asian allies. He also said that he intends to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
The negative impact on the dollar has also had a decrease in yields on US bonds. Yield on indicative 10-year Treasury bonds showed a biggest of more than two weeks in a one-day decline, as fears about the consequences of a tough stance of Trump on trade increased demand for safe bonds.
The euro fell by 0.1 percent to $ 1.0753, earlier reaching $1.0774 - the highest value since December 8th.

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The dollar is losing ground after the speech of Yellen, investors are waiting for the inauguration of Trump

Dollar lost momentum on Friday as the speech of the Fed's Janet Yellen of the gradual rise of interest rates was less harsh than expected. Investors are watching for the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump on Friday.
The dollar index fell by 0.10 percent by 5.55 GMT to 101.050 points. The US currency has lost about 0.2 percent for the week.
The dollar moved away from the peak after the speech by the US Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen, which came in the early trading in Asia.
Yellen said that US regulators should continue to slowly raise rates to preserve the economy from the low inflation and employment, so as not to damage the economic recovery, the Fed is keen to support.
Now investors expect the inaugural speech of Donald Trump, in which they will be looking for indications of upcoming changes.
The dollar fell against the yen by 0.04 percent to 114.81 yen, heading for weekly increase by 0.2 percent.
The euro gained 0.08 percent to $1.0673, securing growth after the European Central Bank statements. For a week the single European currency has strengthened by 0.3 percent.
The ECB said yesterday that they will continue the policy of negative interest rates and buying up assets to stimulate growth.
The euro briefly fell during a press conference of ECB President Mario Draghi, who spoke about the decaying inflation and the need to further esing in Europe.
The euro fell to $1.0589 during Draghi's speech on Thursday, but later recovered after the words of the head regulator about the absence of policy changes.

EUR/USD: The market is waiting for the speech of Mario Draghi

On Wednesday, euro/dollar closed lower. Before the performance of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen euro corrected to the balance line. After her speech the euro fell against the dollar to 1.0624. She said that the regulator intends to increase the base interest rate several times until 2019. At the same time she refused to specify the timing and the pace of the increase. She said that the decision will depend on the performance of the US economy. Nevertheless, the dollar rose after her performance.
On Wednesday, the mid trendline was broken. Thus, the "bears" have opened their way to the trend line at 1.0571. Meanwile, the  mark 1.0623 must be broken too.
On Thursday, the focus of market participants will be on the ECB meeting and press conference by Mario Draghi. In this regard, the direction of the pair will be determined by Draghi's rhetorics. After yesterday's fall before the ECB meeting the euro could continue its upward correction to 1.0659. If strengthening is faster, the pair could go up to 1.0675.

USD/CAD

At the end of yesterday's trading session, Canadian currency suffered significant losses, which couldn't help even the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. The pressure on the currency strengthened by regulator's comments regarding the low inflation, as well as the negative effects of the high currency rate with which it's harder to fight for domestic producers. It should be noted that the pair USD/CAD had a reasonable basis for the growth without soft rhetoric of the Bank of Canada. The main reasons due to which the Canadian risks continue to remain under pressure, is the contrast of the monetary policies of the Bank of Canada and the United States, a significant yield spread between bonds of these regions, the probability of keeping the correctional dynamics of the oil market, as well as the risk of revision of NAFTA agreement after Trump will take over as US president. The greatest potential impact on the USD/CAD pair is in the last two factors. Oil has traded in the local minima, and, apparently, plans to continue its downward rally. As for Trump, after the inauguration the market can receive the first signals of implementation of trade reforms, about which so much said Trump during his election campaign.

The dollar moved away from the lows, investors expect Yellen's performance

The dollar took a little breather on Wednesday after falling to a seven-week low against the yen, while investors awaited the speech by Fed's governor Janet Yellen devoted to monetary policy.
The US currency strengthened by 0.6 percent to 113.30 yen after passing the minimum of seven weeks at 112.57 yen. The Japanese currency strengthened seven consecutive sessions.
The dollar index, showing the dynamics of the US currency against six major currencies, amounted to 100.640 points by 5.45 GMT, adding 0.3 percent. On Tuesday, the dollar fell to 100.26 points, its lowest level since December 8.
The euro was down by 0.28 percent to $1.0683, breaking the day before the mark of $1.07195, which is the maximum value from December 8.
In his speech, Yellen on Wednesday may contain indications of the direction of US monetary policy.

Pound rises after the speech of Theresa May

The pound rose significantly on Tuesday, reaching a maximum increase for one day since the beginning of 2009. This happened after the speech of Theresa May about the UK's withraw from the EU and the depreciation of the dollar against the backdrop of investors assess caused by the statements of the president-elect Donald Trump.
The pair GBP/USD rose by 2.66% to 1.2369, pulling back from Monday's low at 1.1985, which was the lowest value after the October crash.
This was the highest rise of the pound from January 2009.
During a speech in London May confirmed that Britain will leave the European single market after Brexit, but will try to keep the maximum access to the market due to new trade agreements.
She also announced that the final plan for Brexit will be voted in both houses of parliament.
Sterling rose sharply against the euro: EUR/GBP pair fell by 1.91% to 0.8633, before recovering after a 10-week high at 0.8851 reached on Monday.
Earlier, the British currency was supported after the publication of data on the highest inflation in the past month in the UK from mid-2014.
National Statistical Service of the United Kingdom reported that annual inflation accelerated to 1.6% in December compared with 1.2% in November. This is higher than the forecast of 1.4%.

The era of the strong dollar has already come (Part 2)

According to Reuters survey results, the main key European economic parameters, especially inflation and GDP, will remain more or less stable only if the elections do not bring with them different kinds of stress. So, expectations for the eurozone in the first and second quarters of 2017 suggest a 0.4% increase on a quarterly basis, and the average expansion of the regional economy for the year will be about 1.5%. A similar growth is expected in 2018. The inflation target for this year and the next one is 1.5%. This is still below the ECB's 2% planned inflation, but much better than what we have seen in the past few years.
The elections could slow these figures. This in turn will very likely impact on fiscal policy of the European Central Bank and, as a consequence, the rates and the euro situation. This long-term view. And without an analysis of the effects of the upcoming elections, it is clear that the year for the euro will be as difficult as the previous one. The era of the strong dollar has already come, and from where it will come the next support for the dollar will be clear already after 20 January.

The era of the strong dollar has already come (Part 1)

Euro/dollar moved up for three consecutive days. And if in the middle of the week the dollar weakened because of the speech by Donald Trump and the subsequent disappointment of speculators, by the end of the week the euro is looking for its own reasons for strengthening. The main trades in EUR/USD are around 1.0650. During the second week of January, the euro/dollar has risen in price by 1.2%.
In the mid-term for the main currency pair, however, nothing yet changed. It remains within the limits of 1,0339-1,0760. And there is no compelling reason to believe that the range will be broken in either direction until the end of January.
The coming year will be exciting for Europe, and not only because of the readiness of the United Kingdom to start Brexit procedure. Germany and France are preparing for the elections, and if we consider that the political chances can provoke significant imbalance in the society and in the economy, then this factor is not reset from the accounts.

AUD/USD

Against the backdrop of the weakening of the US dollar and the strengthening of the Australian currency, the pair's quotes manage to show an upward trend fourth trading day in a row. But with such a powerful strengthening quotes managed to approach to a very important resistance level of 0.7515/25.
It is noteworthy that this level is not only a maximum of 13 and 14 December, and a minimum of November 11-15. All this indicates a high degree of importance of the marked level of resistance. Accordingly, the risk of corrective decline remains high.
The nearest support level stands at a mark of 0.7455, a break of which would open the way to 0.7430. However, more important still will the support area of 0.7350-0.7370. Until the return of the pair's quotes below the marked area of ​​support, the overall mood remains "Bullish".

The dollar fell, Donald Trump disappointed investors

The US dollar fell as a press conference of Donald Trump has disappointed investors. Trump did not disclose details on the pre-election promises on fiscal stimulus and tax cuts.
The dollar index fell by 0.75%, below 101, the US currency fell to one month low against the yen. The euro exchange rate against the dollar reached a high of $1.06, climbing with neaqrly 300 pips.
The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds fell after comments from Trump by 2.3%.
The pound rose above $1.23 after the optimistic statements of the Bank of England about the country's economy.

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The yen has fallen, Trump raised fears about a possible trade war

The dollar rose against the yen on Friday during the Asian trading session, after US President-elect Donald Trump on Twitter criticized the largest Japanese car company, prompting fears of a possible trade war between the United States and the leading Asian trading partner.
"Toyota Motor said will build a new plant in Baja, Mexico, to build Corolla cars for U.S. NO WAY! Build plant in U.S. or pay big border tax," Trump said in a post on Twitter. USD/JPY was trading at 116.19, gaining 0.72%.
Yesterday, the US dollar has fallen relative to other major currencies, after the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve pointed to the uncertainty about the possible consequences of the economic policies of the future Trump presidency.
The index reached its highest level in 14 years on Tuesday as strong performance in the US manufacturing strengthened expectations about the high rate of monetary tightening in 2017.
But the dollar came under pressure on Wednesday after the Fed's minutes, which were held on December 13-14, showed that officials noted "considerable uncertainty" about the policy of President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump takes office on Jan. 20, and so far has not voiced the details of his economic policy.

The dollar rose on data of the growth of wages in the US

In November, fewer jobs were created in the US labor market than expected, while the unemployment rate rose slightly. However, a significant positive for the market was the news of unexpectedly strong growth in average hourly wages. Against this background, the US dollar continued to strengthen against world currencies.

The US unemployment rate rose to 4.7% from 4.6% recorded in the previous month, as predicted by the forecast.
Meanwhile, average hourly wages rose in December by 0.4% after falling by 0.1% a month earlier. Analysts expected an increase by only 0.3%. As a result, the annual rate rose by 2.9% from 2.5% in November. The dynamics of growth of wages is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, as an indirect indicator of inflation and evidence of improvement in the labor market.

USD index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.6% to reach 102, compared with 101.67 at the time of the release of data.

The dollar fell after the release of weak ADP report

Dollar drops against the major currencies after data from ADP showed that employment in the US private sector grew in December, much less than expected.
ADP reported that the level of employment in the private sector rose to a seasonally adjusted 153 thousand last month, below the projected increase of 170 thousand.
In November 215 thousand jobs were created.
The ADP report is not considered as an accurate indicator about government NFP data, which will be published today, January 6, but can serve as a reference for market participants.
The EUR/USD after the publication of this news has increased by 0.5% to 1.0540 (by 13:45 GMT).
USD/JPY has fallen by 1% to 116.06.
USD Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.4% to 102.06.
Previously, pressure on the US currency made published protocols of the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of Federal Reserve, which emphasized on the uncertainty as to the likely impact of the policy of the new administration of Donald Trump on the US economy and the Fed's monetary policy.

British economy retains upward momentum (Part 2)

Inflationary pressure is strong in the industrial sector, where manufacturers are suffering from rising raw material costs, according to BCC price pressures is now the highest since the second quarter of 1997 onwards.

According to the survey, inflation has emerged as the biggest cause of concern for many companies. Companies from both industrial and the services sectors are under pressure mainly by rising raw material costs, which increases opportunity for profit and could weaken further investment.

Firms in the country have become slightly more optimistic about their prospects compared to the previous quarter, although their confidence in turnover and profits remained relatively low compared with levels in the last three years.

The latest quarterly survey by the British Chamber of Commerce covers more than 7,200 companies in the country and was conducted between November 7 and November 28, 2016.

British economy retains upward momentum (Part 1)

The British economy has maintained its upward momentum in the last months of 2016, but at the same time, inflationary pressure has increased with the robust pace of almost 20 years. This shows a survey of British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), released today and cited by Reuters.
British Chamber of Commerce said that sales and hiring improved slightly in the fourth quarter, which is another signal that Britain is likely outstripped growth in most of the developed economics past year. The latest quarterly survey, however, also indicates the presence of complications arising from the votes of the British referendum last June when Britons voted to leave the European Union.
According to BCC, a record number of manufacturers expecting price rises over the next three months. Most companies in the service plan to raise prices, and their number is the highest since the beginning of 2011 onwards.

Although British business reported a slight improvement in export sales in the fourth quarter, the Chamber of Commerce notes that there is still very little evidence that the weakness of the pound has provoked a boom in demand for British goods abroad.

US Stock markets closed the year with profits

US markets closed with minor losses on Thursday as investors decided to refrain from cardinal decisions during the weaker trading shortly before the upcoming holidays and the long weekend.

All three major indexes recorded strong monthly gains and the growth throughout 2016 is expected to be impressive.

"The markets already have made very good progress, as S&P 500 is up by 10 percent, and too small traded volumes of recent days are proof that there are no major market participants, which would cause some radical changes", said Michael Antonelli, broker at Robert W. Baird & Co.

Shortly after hitting the bell for the start of trading on Friday indices remained almost unchanged despite mixed economic data.

The euro rose sharply against the dollar, catching traders by surprise

During the last for the year Asian trading the euro jumped dramatically against the US dollar, which caught traders by surprise, writes MarketWatch.
The cost of the euro flew in a few minutes from a level of $ 1.0490 to $ 1.0700, a maximum of 2 weeks. However, the rate quickly dropped to $1.0517 from $1.0490 at the close of trading prior to the closing of the trading year.
In tandem with the yen the dollar rose to 116.986 yen compared with 116.54 yen at the close on Thursday
The Pound Sterling, Australian and New Zealand dollars also rose to US currency.
The cost of the pound rose to $ 1.2346 from $1.2261 day earlier.
WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against 16 major currencies, fell during the trading by 0,5%. The indicator, however, closed the year with increase by more than 3%.