Why can the bitcoin be a major threat to the market next year? (2)

Secondly, it must be borne in mind that there are still too many uncertainties about the bitcoin and its transparency.
The cost of the bitcoin is extremely volatile and, after parabolic growth, can follow a lesser amount of cryptocurrencies depreciation.
The volatility of the bitcoin may be further reinforced by the lack of familiarity of investors. Of course, this does not mean that the cost of the bitcoin can not continue up and next year, says Bapis.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank earlier this month put the "danger of the collapse of the bitcoin" as one of the serious threats to the markets next year.

Credit Suisse: The bullish market does not end here

Following an outstanding performance in 2017, US indices will continue to rise next year, at least according to analysts of the investment bank Credit Suisse.
In a letter to their clients last week, the bank predicts that the broad US state's S&P 500 index will rise to 3,000 points by the end of 2018, which translates as a new two-digit growth for the benchmark.
If the indicator reaches the specified psychological limit of 3000 points, it would be an increase of 12% over the next 12 months. This figure, however, would have been far below the 20% growth rate registered in the year 2017.
The bank added that the profits of US companies are expected to receive an additional one-time incentive of between 8-9% also as a consequence of the tax reform.
Growth of the economy accelerates its pace while at the same time the level of inflation is kept low. Although the "bullish market" is entering its 10th year, the prospects for it are still relatively good, the bank said.

Why can the bitcoin be a major threat to the market next year? (1)

The bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies are the hot topic of 2017. The bitcoin has risen 17 times since the beginning of the year, and other cryptocurrencies, like the lightcoin and the ripple, have multiplied their value by more than 50 times.
Still, not all experts are so enthusiastic about the future of cryptocurrencies and their impact on global financial markets.
Although futures were shown on the bitcoin of two of the leading derivatives exchanges and in the second half of next year, as Nasdaq is expected to do so, according to Michael Backpack of HighTower, cryptocurrencies may be the basis for serious problems for financial markets as a whole in the coming year. Here's the reasons for these expectations:
Firstly, at the moment, the power is on the side of the bitcoin. However, this moment can quickly change and reverse. Governments around the world are looking for more and more ways to begin to investigate trade with bitcoin and to regulate the search for and supply of cryptocurrencies. The reason is obvious - cryptocurrencies, like an anonymous currency, is undoubtedly an ideal means of "laundering money" from the illegal business.

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Nasdaq passed 7,000 points for the first time in history

The Nasdaq Technology Index has passed the psychological limit of 7,000 points for the first time in its history on Monday. The other two indexes, S&P and Dow, rose to new record highs. The hopes that tax cuts will be the Christmas gift to investors were at the core of stock market growth.
The broad S&P 500 rose to nearly 2,700 points, from which the border only separated a few points.
The US indices enjoyed an almost year-round rally this year, focusing on their best performance in 2013.
Twitter's stocks were among the highest rising for the day, adding over 8%. This happened after JPMorgan predicted double-digit growth in social networking users next year.

Long bitcoin is the most crowded deal on the market

Bad news for the owners of bitcoin. Currently, a long position in the cryptocurrency is determined by the financial institution Bank of America Merrill Lynch as the most overcrowded deal. And usually, such deals do not end well...
Managers of large institutional investors do not really help, buying bitcoins, unwilling to miss the trades of the year.
The fact that the bitcoin is the most crowded deal on the market at the moment is based on a survey of 203 managers, $558 billion worth of management.
It is not a big surprise that everyone is going to buy bitcoins, given the astronomical rise in the cryptocurrency. It rose by 1,800% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, with its market capitalization already more than $300 billion.

Gold rose

Gold appreciated yesterday as a result of continuing uncertainty as to when tax reform will be presented. This weighs on the dollar and initiates a rise in precious metals.
The dollar index was down, which was a good news for gold. Traditionally, the price of gold is in reverse correlation with the level of the dollar.
If the tax reform sees the world, it is possible for the price of gold to fall, but only for a moment.
Expectations that the tax reform will trigger economic growth, and this will lead to inflation and appreciation of the dollar, generally discourage gold from more serious growth, commented market observers.
The spot price of gold added 0.5% to 1 261.30 dollars per ounce. Metal futures added 0.6 percent to $1,264.40 per ounce.
For the next year, it is expected the price of gold to drop by between $25 and $50, due to good prospects for the US and world economy, Fed's rising interest rates, and the potential rise in the dollar.
In the first part of 2018, however, potential concerns and correction of the stock markets may bring some strength to the noble metal.

Here's why the US indices are overestimated (2)

The S&P 500 is currently trading at 25% above its 200-day moving average, and the RSI index is at a level of 83.4 points or far out of overpriced territory.
The premium above the 200-day average is close to that of 2007.
Therefore, according to some analysts, the market is currently extremely volatile on news that could lead to sales.
Experts who forecast a potential downward correction in the short run are becoming more and more.
Whether it will continue the rally next year will depend mainly on banks, energy and healthcare companies.

Here's why the US indices are overestimated (1)

Today, US indices rose to new historical records, following expectations for a recent introduction of US tax reform. Now, however, it is entirely possible that they are in overpriced territory.
Indeed, the broad S&P 500 index is close to the next psychological limit of 2,700 points. And this level is only 4% of the consensus opinion of the analysts for an index value of 2,800 points by the end of the year.
In other words, most of the market participants do not count on a significant increase in the index next year. By comparison, if the current S&P 500 index ends the year at current level, it would be an increase by over 20% for the year.
On the other hand, investors are good at following the "buy news, sell rumors" principle. That is, a very good time to get out of the market could be - the adoption of tax reforms. This may give the final impetus to the indexes that will lead them to new peaks that will last for a long time.

Are tax reliefs not fully calculated in stock prices?

After months of delays and postpones, tax cuts are getting closer to reality. They, to a large extent, were at the base of the growth of US indices, leading them to new historical records.
But JPM, the US investment bank, has good news for the investors - the growth is not fully reflected in stock levels.
In a letter to investors on Monday, bank analysts said tax cuts were reflected in just 50 percent of stock levels. This gives space for the index to rise to 2,800 points by the first months of next year, according to analysts.

Emerging markets indices catch up with their currencies

Rising indices in emerging markets have finally made them catch up to a certain extent in the growth of currencies.
The relative performance of the MSCI Inc. index since the beginning of 2007, before the financial crisis, shows that the growth of the indexes lags behind that of the developing currencies by only five percentage points, compared to 30 points in the beginning of 2016.
And while the shares and currencies of the developing countries are moving toward their best year since 2009, the rise in the indices is more than three times that of the currencies.
Shares performed better than currencies with more than 20 percentage points in 2007, before falling over six times more than currencies in the next year of financial crisis.
The indices offset some of their lag in 2009 and 2010, but the gap widened again in 2015 to begin narrowing in the next 2106.
Since the end of 2006, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen 23%, comparing to 28% rise of the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index.
Concerns that the Fed may continue with the policy of increase in interest rates may reduce cravings for high-risk assets and strengthen the negative correlation between the currencies of developing countries and the interest rates on US government bonds.

A mysterious trader continues to bet for volatility

The mysterious trader, who has become famous for his big bets on volatility, continues to get into the media. The final bet for a volatility would have brought him $260 million.
The US indices, which are at record levels in their history, have initiated a record low volatility. Indeed, the leading US indices have a record long period of no adjustment of 3% or more.
Exactly two months, following a vicious bet on VIX that the volatility index would rise to December, expectations were continued until January.
Or the position was the rolled-over for the first month of the year, with a potential for profits of the fascinating $260 million.
In the preferred scenario in which the VIX index rises but remains below 25 points before December, the trader would initiate a profit of $260 million.
If the index rises above $35, however, the trader will start losing money. The spot of the volatility index was trading momentarily at 13.57 on Friday.
Information about the trade was revealed before the Bloomberg financial magazine by a trader familiar with the deal.
Market observers comment that the bet is probably not speculative, but aims to insure a large institutional investor's portfolio from potential volatility in the markets.

The dollar appreciated by more than 10,700% against this currency

The rates with which Venezuelan bolivar falls against the US dollar are dizzying. Only in the past month the US currency has appreciated 135% against the bolivar. Since the beginning of the year, the appreciation is 2 958% or more than 30 times.
If we expand, however, the time horizon of up to two years, things seem quite startling. The US dollar has risen by 10,768%. To realize the appreciation, we can only say that the popular amongst the bankers cryptocurrency bitcoin has risen by only 2 500% over the same period.
The problems for Venezuela are well known. The country is in one of the biggest crises in its history, and hyperinflation is a phenomenon lasting checked in by the intervention of the government of President Nicolas Maduro. The decision by the central bank to print money as much as it is needed greatly facilitates hyperinflation in the country.
Announced plans of the president earlier this month to restructure foreign debt, only added to the financial difficulties for the country and led to chaos in the capital Caracas.
The Bolivar was traded at 96.794 dollars by the end of last week after it started the week at 82.186 per dollar. For comparison, the officially announced dollar rate is 10 dollars.
The situation in Venezuela is so out of control that some converts to Maduro began to talk about something unthinkable until recently - the liberalization of market policies.

US indexes with new records

At the end of the week, US indices rose to new record highs. The Dow Index passed the 24,000 limit for the first time in its history on Thursday when the market was opened.
A new historical maximum of more than 2,650 points has marked the other major US index - the broad S&P 500. Apparently nothing can stop the US indices on their way up...
Now the question is whether the experts' forecasts for growth of the broad index to 2,800 points for the next year are not too conservative. This level appears to be getting closer and far from a distance of 10% from the current values ​​of the indicator.
It is entirely possible that the indicator growth will continue until the end of the year, especially when the tax reform is announced. Apparently, the strategy to delay the announcement of this reform has been positive, as investors wait to buy US stocks and indices while they wait.

The bitcoin over $10,000? (2)

Indeed, the ethereum also recorded its highest value in history - at a level of $485 on Sunday.
The only one of the main cryptocurrencies, which is significantly behind its height, is the ripple. The cryptocurrency are traded at levels of $0.245 per share, and are nearly 50% below the highest in its history.
Coinbase, the largest US pound exchange, added more than 100,000 accounts between Wednesday and Friday, just before the Black Friday. The total number of accounts is already at a level of 13.1 million.
For comparison, the Coinbase Exchange had about 4.9 million users last November.
The rallying of the bitcoin is undoubtedly related to the CME's plans to present futures on the bitcoin in the second week of December. Until then, there is still a long time, so it is quite possible that the psychological limit of $10,000 will be even overcome.

The bitcoin over $10,000? (1)

The bitcoin follows its plan, and apparently nothing can stop it on its way to $10,000. On the first day of the new week, the cryptocurrency reached a new historic peak at levels above $9500.
So it is only about 5 percent growth to rise to $10,000. A level that hardly anyone could imagine at the beginning of the year, when the cryptocurrency was trading well over $1,000.
In other words, the bitcoin has risen nearly 9.5 times since the beginning of the year and is undoubtedly one of the most expensive assets in the financial markets at all. Of course, if it comes to profitability, that of the ethereum and the ripple are far higher.
It should not be forgotten, however, that the bitcoin is the main and largest cryptocurrency, whose market capitalization accounts for more than 50% of the total of the crypto currencies.
On Sunday, the bitcoin rose for the first time to more than $9,000, reaching $9,250.
As a result, the market capitalization exceeded the $150 billion psychological limit. For comparison, the second largest market capitalization cryptocurrency - the ethereum is with a market capitalization of 44 billion dollars.

Gold with a six-week high yesterday, tested $1,300

The price of gold has fallen today, albeit keeping close to its highest level in six weeks since yesterday's session. This happened after Powell initiated a further raise in interest rates before the Trump Senate Tax Reform vote.
The spot price of gold lost 0.1% of its value to a level of $1,293 per ounce. Yesterday, gold reached a momentum of $1,299 per ounce, or the highest level since October 16.
According to political analysts, North Korea may be preparing to launch new ballistic missiles soon. Such actions would have a positive impact on the price of gold.
Gold is also very sensitive to the interest rates and the US Dollar exchange rate. Traditionally, it is cheaper when the dollar strengthens, or more aggressive on interest rises.
Speculators have lowered their long positions in gold and silver futures in the week to November 21.

Oil will drop after OPEC meeting?

Comments on the OPEC meeting sent the price of the Brent upward over the past week, but hedge funds saw a good opportunity to reduce their exposure to oil.
The latter cut their bullish bets on the Brent, taking advantage of the raw material growth.
Forecasts have shown that it is possible for the price of oil to fall significantly after the OPEC meeting, similar to what happened earlier this year.
The Brent is traded close to its highest value in two years before the OPEC meeting, which will be held on 30 November in Vienna. The Cartel and Russia are expected to extend their production cuts by the end of next year.
According to market observers, however, OPEC and Russia are still working on smoothing the conditions for the future continuation of the current conditions.
Market participants still remember what happened in May before the OPEC meeting. Oil futures rose 10% before the decision after which the price dropped seriously after disclosure of the redundancies.
Still, there are still many investors who believe that oil can continue to rise, at least until the OPEC meeting.

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Gold returns after its growth yesterday

The price of gold fell on Thursday after investors were taking their profits. The noble metal added nearly 1% the previous session, after weaker than expected data on the US economy and the Fed's fears about inflation.
Investors have lowered their expectations of the number of interest rises next year after Yellen said aggressive interest rates could further exacerbate inflation. The latter is still below the target of 2%.
Still, expectations are for another rise in interest rates in December, which continues to weigh above the price of precious metal. It trades in a relatively narrow range so far between $1,265 and $1,290.
According to technical analysts, only an increase of more than $1,300 could lead to further growth of the precious metal.
The spot price of gold lost 0.2% of its value to levels of $1,290 per ounce earlier this morning.
Gold futures with delivery in December fell 0.2 percent to $1 289.80 per ounce.
Gold may test support at $1 283 per ounce.

The euro confirms its status as a "rescue island" (2)

Eurozone interest rates are still close to their record low, and the euro has to break the psychological limit of $1.20.
However, the general attitudes of the market are that the ECB will hardly be able to find justification in order to continue to maintain its incentives for the economy.
At the end of last week, Mario Draghi said wages should start rising, which would help inflation to move to the target of 2%.
For the last week, the euro rose by more than 1% to $1.1795. Bloomberg analysts' expectations are for levels of 1.22 dollars per euro next year and 1.25 dollars in 2019.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted that the euro would rise to 1.20 over the next 12 months.

The euro confirms its status as a "rescue island" (1)

The European currency, which just a few years ago was synonymous with political instability and speculated whether it would ever exists, attracts a large number of buyers at a time when risky assets around the world are being sold out.
Part of this is predetermined by the focus on "rescue assets" and the improving state of the euro area economy and inflation.
The rise of the euro is a reality, despite the "backwards direction" of the ECB's incentives. Mario Draghi has said several times that we need to see inflation first before a more serious normalization of interest rate policy.
And while investors do not plan to raise interest rates from the ECB, at least until 2019, according to experts, improving the economic situation on the "old continent" is hard to ignore.

The US dollar and the US indices ended Friday with declines

The US dollar ended the last day of last week with a loss, in line with the US indices. The latter ended at their lowest values ​​for the day as a result of skepticism about Trump's tax reform.
Interest on US government bonds declined as well as those in 10-year German bonds, as a consequence of risk exclusion on the part of investors.
Good data on US home construction in October raised investor stakes for further interest rates, at the Fed meeting in December.
The dollar index fell 0.28%, with the euro adding 0.2% to 1.1793 at the end of last week.
The blue Dow Jones Industrial Average index lost 100.12 points, or 0.43% to 23,358.24 points, while the S&P 500 fell 6.79 points, or 0.26% to 2 578.85 points. Technological Nasdaq Composite lost 10.5 points, or 0.15% to 6 782.79 points.
Two-year interest on US bonds reached a new nine-year high at 1.73%.

The bitcoin already exceeds $8,000

The cost of the bitcoin continued upwards and apparently nothing could stop it. The cryptocurrency has reached a new psychological level - $8,000 per number and rose momentarily to $8,300.
More and more experts are starting to think that the bitcoin is heading for the $10,000 psychological limit, and nothing can stop it on his way. The question that fewer ask, however, is - What will happen if and when the bitcoin reaches this limit?
Thus, the market capitalization of the bitcoin is approaching 140 billion dollars, and the total of all the cryptocurrencies is now about 240 billion dollars.
Bitcoin's dominance in the world of cryptocurrencies also increased over the past few days, reaching over 56% after the strong appreciation of bitcoin cash contributed to a violation of that domination.
Bitcoin cash went down to its peak last week and traded at about $1,200, or about 50% below its highest price.
While appreciating of the bitcoin cash of over four hundred percent for about a week was "staggering," according to many experts, yet many people are not aware that the bitcoin cash and bitcoin are two different things.

Oil pulled the US indices down

US indices dropped yesterday, driven by oil price losses for the fourth consecutive day. This has led to a drop in the shares of energy companies. In addition, investors continue to worry about the lack of presentation of tax reforms.
This has begun to increase speculation whether reforms will meet the analysts' increased expectations.
The fall in oil prices came after the surprise growth in oil and petroleum stocks last week.
Metal prices also fell due to fears about the state of the Chinese economy and the possibility of slowing significantly.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by nearly 95 points and the S&P 500 lost 9.3 points.
The volatility index reached a two-month high at 14.51 points.
Financial shares were among the few profitable, and they are expected to benefit from the potential rise in interest rates next month.

Did the oil reach its peak?

Oil fell yesterday as prospects for further rising of raw material prices met with expectations of a rise in US production. The US producers seem to increase their production in light of the recent rise in the price of "black gold."
Brent futures are at a level of $62.94 a barrel, or a decline of 22 cents, or 0.35% since their last closing. US crude oil lost 14 cents to $56.62 a barrel.
Decline became a reality after oil reached its highest levels since 2015 in the past week. Since then, however, the raw material has lost some moment in its movement.
US production has risen by more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to a record 9.62 million barrels per day.
From the beginning of the year to the present, the average price of the Brent is at a level of 54.5 dollars per barrel.
Many traders forecast for a drop in oil prices from now on, following expectations of further US production growth.
OPEC has raised its forecast for next year's demand growth of 360,000 barrels a day, against previous expectations in July.

German economy in great shape

The German economy reported a 0.6% growth in its GDP in the third quarter. This was accelerating the rise in the economy compared to the second quarter of the year. The result responded to the average market expectations.
At the same time, the growth of Italy's economy also rose to 0.5%, according to the forecast.
All this leads investors to expect that the eurozone economy will maintain its robust growth performance since the beginning of the year and in the third quarter.
The data triggered an increase of the euro against other major currencies. The single currency returned to more than 1.1700, trading on peaks at 1.1720 levels. The rise in the euro, after the results, amounted to 0.4%.
The ECB, of course, did not miss the opportunity to underline its function of the observed growth, saying that the measures taken to repurchase assets began to produce its results and was "extremely successful", according to vice-president Vitor Constanceo.
Now, investors are rising expectations that the ECB will resort to further action to normalize its monetary policy at upcoming meetings.

Gold slows down its decline

Gold fell on Friday after interest on US bonds rose. Losses, however, were limited by the weakness of the stock market and the dollar, which declined due to the uncertainty surrounding the US tax reform.
Increases in US bond interest rates have put pressure on gold, reducing the attractiveness of the metal.
The spot price of gold fell 0.7 percent to 1 275.6 dollars per ounce at the end of the week. It reached the highest value of $1,288 on Thursday, prompting analysts and traders to talk again at $1,300 or even more.
However, it was quickly overcome on Friday and almost all of the growth was offset.
Gold futures with delivery in December fell by 13.3 dollars, or 1% to 1 274.20 dollars per ounce.

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The Australian Bank kept interest rates, sent the Australian dollar down

The Australian Central Bank kept interest rates at a record low for the 14th time.
However, this may soon change, given the central bank's forecast for a 3% growth over the next few years and a fall in unemployment from its current levels at 5.5%.
Far more cautious, however, was the tone of the central bank in terms of consumption and inflation.
For the last time, the Australian bank lowered interest rates in August 2016 in order to protect itself against the risk of deflation. The Bank is still facing serious difficulties in returning consumer price growth back to levels of 2-3%.
Inflation rose to only 1.8% in the third quarter of the year, but even this looks pretty high in the short term.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), built-in inflation is actually about 1.6%.
The futures market does not expect an increase in interest rates in Australia until early 2019. All of this reflects extremely negatively on the Australian dollar, which dropped to 0.7636 against the US or its lowest value since the beginning of July.

What's on Forex Today?

The third day of the week will begin with data on China's imports, exports and trade balance. The latter is expected to recover from $ 28.5 to $ 29.5 billion in October.
Early in the morning, forecast data for leading and matched indicators will be exported from Japan.
The first data from Europe will relate to France's current account and trade balance.
Followed by industrial production in Spain, which is projected to grow by 2.5% yoy in September.
At 11:30, the Polish central bank's decision on interest rates will happen. It is expected to remain at 1.5% yoy.
The first US data will be related to the MBA index for mortgage credit applications, followed by the results for home construction and construction permits in Canada, as well as US oil reserves.
The day will end with New Zealand's central bank decision on interest rates. It is expected to be maintained at a level of 1.75% on an annual basis.

Gold returns some of its glitter

Gold went back above $ 1,270 per ounce yesterday after stabilizing in the dollar. This led to a recovery in interest in the precious metal after a third consecutive week of decline.
But the price is still under pressure from expectations of a new Fed interest rate increase next month.
The spot price of gold was trading early this morning at $ 1,278 per ounce, while metal futures with delivery in December rose to $ 1,280 per ounce.
The dollar stabilized on Monday after its biggest weekly rise this year.
The fact that Trump is on a visit to Asia can re-focus North Korea to support the price of the noble metal, according to market observers.
Gold has fallen over the past weeks, back by 2.5 percent of its peak in mid-October, with Fed rising expectations for a further rise in interest rates in December.

The Trump Rally is the fourth best since the 1936's

Since the election of Donald Trump as president last November, the US indices enjoyed a very good performance.
And while the growth of over 20% for the S & P 500 index and 30% for the Dow blue chip index, sending indexes to new records is far from being their best performance compared to modern US presidents.
According to data from the US investment bank Goldman Sachs, the rise in US elections after Trump's election victory is the fourth best since 1936. With a better performance for such a period of election victory, the markets were distinct during presidents George Bush, John Kennedy and Bill Clinton.
The market rally after Clinton's 1996 election victory raises the S & P 500 from nearly 30% a year and over 50% over the next 24 months. This is the biggest rise after a presidential election victory.
It can also be argued about the motives behind the growth of the market. To a large extent, the current one is predetermined by the hopes for tax reforms that will mainly ease major US corporations.
However, as Goldman mentions, shares of companies that are expected to benefit most from tax reform have been worse off the market as a whole this year.
In addition, there are warnings, including from the US Treasury Secretary, that if the tax reform is not adopted, we may see a substantial fall in stock prices.

OPEC starts talking about $70 a barrel

At a meeting in May, several oil ministers from OPEC countries spoke positively of a $50 oil price. This, however, is unlikely to happen at the upcoming cartel meeting. With rising raw materials in recent weeks, the "fair price" for oil will probably rise for the cartel countries.
The Brent, which has been rising since June, has already breached the psychological level of $ 60 a barrel for the first time since July 2015.
According to OPEC, the fair price for oil is almost always slightly above the current price. So by crossing the $ 60 limit, no wonder this fair price would be $ 70 a barrel.
At the end of October, the Qatari energy minister said oil is moving in the right direction, even in a pricing environment of about $ 60. According to Venezuela, the "fair price" of oil is $ 70 a barrel, while according to Iraq these are between 70 and 80 dollars per barrel.
From Russia, however, they are already showing signs of anxiety over the too rapid and sharp rise in oil prices. According to them, levels of 60 dollars would be justified and a good reward for the production cuts in which Russia is also involved.

Weak property growth in the UK

Property prices in the UK maintain their weak growth in October this year. Compared to the same month last year, properties rose by 2.5%. The range of raise is similar to that of the beginning of the year.
The rise in property prices in the UK has slowed down significantly over the past year as a result of the uncertainty associated with BREXIT.
Property grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis, which was a serious slowdown compared to the first half of the year.
Low interest rates and steady levels of employment give some relief to the demand for real estate.
On the other hand, the uncertainty associated with BREXIT and the conditions for leaving the Union can be factors that aggravate the situation for the property market.
The decision of the central bank this week to raise interest rates may have a further negative impact on the properties.
Property buyers and mortgage lenders are already adjusting their finances in a line that fits the interest rate hike.

US indexes with new records, Fed hinted at a December rate hike

Fully expected, Fed retained interest rates yesterday after the two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. This led to a rise for US indices, with the S&P 500 broad index closed up by 0.16%, to 2 579.36 points.
The Dow Jones blue chip index rose by 140 points at one point, but eventually ended with an increase of 57 points to a level of 23,435 points.
Technological Nasdaq lagged behind its performance, down by 0.2 percent to 6,716.53 points, driven by a 1.3 percent decline in Apple's stock.
Fed responded to the average market expectations and kept the interest rate unchanged. Only 1.5% of analysts forecasted higher interest rates. But the Fed has left the door open for December's interest rate hike. Expectations for this are already nearly 100%, according to CME's FedWatch.

The bitcoin takes one-third of Bill Miller's fund

Former Legg Mason's hedge fund manager, Bill Miller, manages a fund about one-third of whose assets are invested in bitcoins, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Miller's fund MVP 1 earned 72.5% from the beginning of the year, thanks to the bitcoin, bought average by 3500 dollars.
For comparison, yesterday, the bitcoin was traded at $6,100, or Miller's investment yielded a 1 600% return.
Miller, however, advises investors not to buy the cryptocurrency at its current high levels. This despite the fact that its fund has raised its investment by 5%, up to 30% in the bitcoin.
Portfolio manager has a good history. While managing one of the Legg Mason funds, he managed to beat the broad S&P 500 index for 15 consecutive years until 2005. Miller left the company in August 2016, after a career spanning 35 years.
Miller said he would not buy more bitcoins for his fund at current prices, but advised anyone who does not have cryptocurrency to invest 1% of his liquid funds there.
For comparison, since the beginning of the year, the broad S&P 500 index has risen by about 15%. The index, following the hedge fund performance, added 5.9% by the end of the third quarter.
The strong appreciation of bitcoin attracts more and more funds that invest in them. The number of funds investing in digital currencies has already risen to 124.

Jeff Bezos overtook Bill Gates, is now the richest man in the world

It's rare for Bill Gates to get ahead of someone's wealth. After the results of Amazon and the appreciation of the shares of the company, however, this happened. And Gates was overtaken by the founder and main shareholder of Amazon - Jeff Bezos.
Gates has been the leader for the past four years.
Bezos, however, raised its net wealth by $10.4 billion after the stock of its parent-funded company rose by 13 percent, after better-than-expected results, or by at most two and a half years.
At the end of Friday, Bezos' net fortune ended at 93.8 billion dollars, or 5.1 billion dollars ahead of Gates.
Only since the beginning of the year, Bezos has raised his wealth by 28.5 billion dollars. By comparison, for the same period, Gates' wealth increased by $6.3 billion, even after donating $4.6 billion of Microsoft's holdings to its foundation in August.

ActivTrades: Client Protection

ActivTrades always takes care of their clients by providing them with client protection:

Protection from negative balance

The interests of ActivTrades' clients are company's top priority - that is why with ActivTrades your balance can not fall to a negative value.

The level of automatic closing of positions on your account has been created to give you the assurance that as a result of commercial action, your potential losses will never exceed your deposit amount. As an additional warranty, ActivTrades offer a Balance Protection Policy and will credit your account to zero balance in case your account reaches a negative balance as a result of your business decisions.

Balance Protection Policy also applies to multiple accounts, so if you have a negative balance in one's account and a positive balance in another, then the positive balance will be used to cover the negative balance. This practice also applies to joint accounts you own with other people, in which case each joint account holder will be held liable for an existing debit or credit on the account.

Client balance protection is valid for all individual trading accounts.

Example of automatic termination - Trade Out

You have €10,000 capital on your trading account and an open short position in EUR against USD from 5 lots (€500,000) at a price of 1.1500. The Trade Out Termination Level - Trade Out for your account is set by ActivTrades at 30% of the warranty margin used, and the maximum allowed leverage is 1:50. That is, the margin requirement for this trade is equal to the total amount of €10,000 of your capital.

In this case, the market rises to 1.1650/1.1652, and at this level your position has an open loss of $7,600 (152 pips X $50 value for each pips) or €6,522.48. Your free capital now stands at €3 477.52. If the market rises by a further 1 pips to 1.1663/1.1665, then the loss will increase to €7,072.43 and the balance will decrease to €2,927.57. At this point, you no longer have 30% of the capital (warranty claim requirement) and the system automatically caps your position at 1.1665. The remaining balance of your capital falls to €2,927.57.

For more information, visit here.

Inflation in Australia below expectations - the Australian dollar with a five-month minimum

Inflation in Australia was surprisingly low, continuing to be under the central bank's target for a second consecutive year. This is increasingly casting off the prospects of raising interest rates.
Consumer price inflation in the country rose to 1.8% for the year to September, below analysts' average inflation expectations of 2%.
The local currency fell to four and a half months minimum and early in the morning lost 0.6% of its value and exchanged at levels of 0.7721 US dollars.
This is the seventh consecutive quarter in which inflation is below market expectations of 2%.
The Australian central bank's long-term inflation target is between 2% and 3%. Permanently low inflation may, however, change the expectation of a recent increase in interest rates by the central financial institution.
Currently, interest rates in Australia are at a record low of 1.5%.

The dollar is close to its highest levels in anticipation of the ECB

The dollar changed slightly yesterday, sticking to its highest values ​​in two weeks before the decision of the ECB later this week.
The dollar index was traded late last night at 93.94 points. The euro traded 0.1% up against the US dollar, at 1.1760, against its 1.1750 prior day.
This week will be extremely saturated at meetings of central banks. There are decisions about the monetary policies of the Bank of Canada, the Swedish and Norwegian central banks, and the ECB on Thursday.
The dollar has found some support after rising interest rates on US government bonds, with 10-year bonds reaching 2.4 percent.
Data released yesterday about activity in the industry sector showed a steady performance of the US economy this month.

Gold with a two-week bottom yesterday

Gold has reached its lowest levels in more than two weeks on Monday, following expectations of continued Japan's ultra-stimulus policy after Abe's election victory. This made the dollar more expensive than the rest of the major currencies and, accordingly, negatively affected the price of the yellow metal.

The spot price of gold fell momentarily yesterday to the lowest value of 1 275 dollars per ounce or its lowest level since October 6. Futures of precious metal with delivery in December lost 4.1 dollars of value, to levels of 1 276.4 dollars per ounce.

The euro area economy remains stable

The economy of the eurozone has kept its strong performance since the beginning of the year, with good performance stimulating companies to recruit new staff at the fastest pace in ten years.
The PMI index for manufacturing and services fell to 55.9 in October, compared to 56.7 in September, according to IHS Markit.
And although the indicator has fallen to the lowest level in two months, the rate of new job in the industrial sector has risen to the highest level since 1997.
Good data comes true shortly before the ECB's meeting this week, which is expected to cut its record-breaking stimulus to the economy.
Currently, the ECB buys back assets worth 60 billion euros, which are expected to be reduced by between 20 and 30 billion dollars from the beginning of next year.
And while inflation is still far below the expectations of the central bank, the first steps towards reducing incentives are expected to be released shortly.

A rare moment in the history of US markets - no drop by 5%

US indices are close to their record values. In fact, the S&P 500 blue chip index has registered 322 days without experiencing a 5% or more adjustment.
This year, the index has record-breaking closing levels in 47 of the 201 stock exchanges.
Since July of last year, the blue chip index has added 19% of its value without having registered an adjustment of 5 or more percents. And this has happened very rarely in the history of the index.

You may be wondering how historically the market has been presented during these long periods without a decrease of 5% or more.
An answer to this question could be found in the chart below:

New records for US indices, the dollar with groth for fifth consecutive day

US indices reached new records yesterday as the dollar continued its winning streak. This happened after investors focused on the Fed's forthcoming interest rate policy and sent US government bonds up.
The spread between 5 and 30-year bonds fell to its lowest level since November 2007, following expectations for a stricter monetary policy worldwide. This has prompted investors to sell short-term government bonds.
The Dow blue chip index added momentarily over 120 points, reaching a new record high.
The dollar rose for the fifth consecutive day, supported by the rise in US bond interest rates. The dollar index added 0.1% to its value.

The pound UK collapsed after GDP and retail sales

The pound lost 0.5% of its value after retail sales data in the country fell more than expected. This reduced the chances of an increase in interest rates at the next meeting, as was the expectation of the majority of market participants.
Retail sales in the country declined by 0.8% on a monthly basis in September, which was far worse than the average expectations for a 0.1% decline.
The growth of the British economy slowed to 1.5% yoy, in the third quarter, which was the weakest performance since October 2013.
According to Tuan Lan Nguyen, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG, the data was quite disappointing and sent pounds down strongly against other major currencies. The expert doubts that with such data, the UK central bank will keep its promise of raising interest rates at its next meeting. However, he remains behind Commerzbank's medium-term forecast for an increase in interest rates.
The pound fell by 0.5% to 1.3135 against the dollar. With the same percentage, the pounds also fell against the euro to 89.69 pence per euro. Interest rates on 10-year British bonds fell four basis points to 1.28%.

Oil with highest price since July

US indexes rose to new historical records, with oil and copper also rising, rising raw materials index. US government bonds fell after Yellen confirmed the FED's position of a gradual rise in interest rates.
Meanwhile, oil has continued to rise and reached a new two-week high as a result of mounting tensions in Iraq that are expected to affect supply. US crude oil rose by 0.8 percent to 51.86 dollars a barrel.
The US reporting season is gaining momentum, with leading US financial institutions reporting the results.
The S&P 500 index ended with an increase of 0.2% yesterday to a new historic peak.

Inflation in the UK highest in five years

Inflation in the UK rose to its highest level in five years in September, driven by accelerated food and transport prices.
The inflation rate rose to 3% in September on an annual basis, or the highest since April 2012, against 2.9% a month earlier, according to national statistics.
Data increases expectations for a raise in interest rates by the British Central Bank, perhaps next month.
The rise in the price of oil and petroleum products may mean that we will see further inflation in the future, according to market observers.
Now, inflation is a full percentage point above the target of the Bank's inflation rate of 2%.