The prospects for the euro till the end of the year

Experts who are withdrawing from their negative attitudes towards the single currency become more and more. The last institution, who did it, was Goldman Sachs. And while the euro faces events-related trials, such as elections in France and Germany, the single currency is beginning to show lasting signs of serious growth.
Whether any serious turmoil in the euro as a result of political events will not provide good opportunities for purchases, we will probably see it very soon.
But one thing is certain. The ECB is about to end its stimulus program and its negative interest rate policy in light of stabilizing inflation rates and rising economies in the region. And this may be a precursor to a more serious growth of the single currency in the medium term.

Europeans are increasingly giving up on the cash (2)

The future of the cash is increasingly being questioned by experts, with the development of dematerialized payment systems and the evolution of smartphones and mobile payments.
Life without physical money is not only possible, but it can also be favored by a large majority of Europeans, market observers say.
Still, people who use traditional money are many and can be described as "traditionalists". 82% of those who have not used less cash in the past year say they do not intend to do so in the next.
Nearly three-quarters of all Europeans are of the opinion that they are not yet ready to give up physical money altogether.

Europeans are increasingly giving up on the cash (1)

The cash may still be a "cure" for most Europeans, but it is beginning to lose its attractiveness. A new study shows that nearly one in three Europeans would be happy to get rid of the cash.
Twenty percent of people rarely carry physical banknotes or coins in their wallets, with 1% claiming they did not needed cash for more than a year.
At the same time, more than half of the respondents said in a new study by Ing Bank that they needed less cash in the last year.
More than half of respondents believe they will use fewer physical banknotes in the next year.

"The Big Five", which brought the growth of the US market in 2017 (2)

Apple shares, the maker of the popular iPhone, rose by 23 percent this year. Alphabet, Google's parent company, added 9 percent, and Microsoft increased by 6 percent.
With the most since the beginning of the year, the shares of the biggest social network in the world - Facebook, increased by 25%. Amazon shares also registered an increase of over 20%.
We should also point out that the broad US S&P500 today is traded above its 200-day moving average, which is a positive signal. However, between 120 and 130 of the broad indicator's components still have prices below this average.

"The Big Five", which brought the growth of the US market in 2017 (1)

US indices performed well for the first four months, accounting for several percent of their record highs.
And while investors and analysts are arguing about this - expensive or inexpensive is the market, and where is the next bigger move, here are the five companies, who became the "pillars" of the rise.
And these companies are mostly from the technology sector. Companies such as Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook, except for the rise in the broad US S&P 500, also contributed to the record highs of technological Nasdaq on Thursday of last week.
The five companies made up between 12% and 13% of the capitalization of the 500 largest US companies.

Beware of the currencies of developing countries (2)

The Indian Rupee and the Philippine Peso are also expected to fall, albeit at a slower pace, due to the sentiment to raise interest rates from their central banks.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the 10 Asian currencies without the yen, rose by 2.5 percent for the three months to March, or the most for the quarter to September 2010.

Among the factors behind the strong performance of Asian currencies in the first quarter was the strong performance of local markets and the US dollar correction period.

However, the from the bank does not expect the growth rates of the first three months of the year to remain in the future, with even lower indexes possible. This is another factor that will most likely bring downward pressure on the Asian currencies.

Beware of the currencies of developing countries (1)

The first quarter of the year went under the currencies of the developing countries. Moreover, the three most rising currencies were precisely from those countries. The best currency for that period was the Azerbaijani manat. After losing more than half of its value in 2015, the currency rose by more than 10% in the first three months of the current year.

Still, investors should be cautious. From Wells Fargo & Co., who made one of the most accurate financial forecasts in the past quarter, investors should be cautious about these currencies.

They do not see the potential for further growth in the currencies of developing countries by the end of the year, according to Nicholas Benenbrook, head of the Fed's monetary policy unit. In his opinion, the Fed's interest rate increase is expected to continue, with stable pace that will add to the currency of the Asian countries.

The South Korean won, the Indonesian rupee and the Thai baht are expected to drop by 2% over the next nine months, according to Wells Fargo forecasts.

US Stock Markets - 20/04/17

On Wednesday key US indices closed down, with only Nasdaq Composite adding +0.23% and closing at 5863.03 points.
The broad S&P 500 wiped out -0.17% of its value and ended the session at 2338.17 points, while the Dow Jones was down by -0.58% and closed at 20404.49 points.
The IBM report has mixed messages after the technology company's earnings have exceeded expectations, but revenue has been down for the twentieth consecutive quarter on an annual basis, and eventually the company's shares ended the day with a decline of -4.92% to $191.69 a share.
Morgan Stanley reports the highest percent revenue growth from bond trading among its Wall Street rivals, and the net profit of the bank jumped by 70 percent to $1.93 billion in the first quarter of 2017.
After the end of the session, the American Express, eBay and Qualcomm reports are expected.

Earlier UK elections put FTSE 100 under pressure

Investors have remained in a standstill against the backdrop of Britain's upcoming parliamentary elections and the upcoming presidential vote in France.
The FTSE 100 wiped out its growth from the beginning of the year, closing at 7,114.36 on Wednesday, losing even more -0.46% of its value, and the International Monetary Fund warned that the unpredictable Brexit result puts risks to global financial stability at a time, in which it is already facing challenges from heavily indebted US corporations, the credit bubble in China and the weak European banks.

ActivTrades: Indices & Bonds Trading

The leading independant on-line broker ActivTrades offers Indices & Bonds Trading with high leverage of up to 1:400. The required margins to open a position is lower than margins, requred for a standart futures contract.
With ActivTrades you have access to the major indices and you can trade FTSE100 with competitive spreads form 0,5 points and 0,02 points on the Bund.
As the Futures, ActivTrades CFDs contracts on indices and fixed incomes have expiry dates and no overnight fees.
Available platforms are MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 and ActivTrader. A mobile version of both platforms is available.
Indices & Bonds Trading with ActivTrades is trensparent, with no hidden fees and comissions.
ActivTrades provides for its customers amazing tools, which help to improve your trading: SmartOrder, SmartCalculator, SmartTemplate and many others.
You can always rely on the excellent 24/5 support.

For more information,  visit here.

Forex forecast for GBP/USD for April 17 - 21, 2017

According to poll amongst forex analysts and looking at techical picture, the forecast for EUR/USD for the next week looks as follows:
A rebound was expected for the GBP/USD. The basis for such a forecast was a zone of strong medium-term support, near which there was the pair. The goal was the height of 1.2500, which the pair reached in the first half of the week, after which it took a breather for almost a day. And then, having gathered with strength, GBP/USD rose another 75 points higher, reaching a height of 1.2575 on Thursday.
In the medium term, almost 80% of experts expect the pair GBP/USD to fall (support levels are located at 1.2420, 1.2360 and 1.2110). As for the near future, most analysts (60%), supported by both oscillators and trend indicators, are inclined to the fact that the upward impulse has not yet exhausted, and the pair will reach at least the height of 1.2615. The next resistance is at the level of 1.2705.

Forex forecast for EUR/USD for April 17 - 21, 2017

According to poll amongst forex analysts and looking at techical picture, the forecast for EUR/USD for the next week looks as follows:
Both analysts, and technical analysis, based on the oversold pair EUR/USD, last week expected its rebound up, which actually happened. Infact, the strength of the bulls in this case was enough only to raise the pair to a height of 1.0690 (instead of the expected 1.0750), after which it fell to the support zone around 1.0610.
For the next week, most analysts (60%), supported by almost 90% of the indicators, are still on the side of the bears, expecting the pair fall to the 1.0500 zone. The alternative point of view, together with 40% of experts, is presented on the graphical analysis on H4. In their view, the pair is moving in the medium-term upwards channel, which began in December 2016, and it will first rise to the level of 1.0690, and then 130 points higher - to a high of 1.0820.

The World’s Most Powerful People 2016 (3)

№10 – Mark Zuckerberg

CEO of Facebook

№9 – Narendra Modi

Prime Minister of India

№8 – Larry Page

President of Alphabet

№7 – Bill Gates

Chair of Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

№6 – Janet Yellen

Chair of Federal Reserve

№5 – Pope Francis

Pope of Roman Catholic Church

№4 – Xi Jinping

General Secretary of Communist Party Of China

№3 – Angela Merkel

Chancellor of Germany

№2 – Donald Trump

President of the United States

№1 – Vladimir Putin

President of Russia

The World’s Most Powerful People 2016 (2)

Here are the 20 most powerful people in the world for 2016, according to Forbes, in descending order:

№20 – Benjamin Netanyahu

Prime Minister of Israel

№19 – Jamie Dimon

CEO of JPMorgan Chase

№18 – Ali Hoseini-Khamenei

Grand Ayatollah of Iran

№17 – Carlos Slim Helu

Chair of Grupo Carso

№16 – Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud

King of Saudi Arabia

№15 – Warren Buffett

CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

№14 – Jeff Bezos

CEO of Amazon

№13 – Theresa May

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

№12 – Li Keqiang

Premier of China

№11 – Mario Draghi

President of the European Central Bank

The World’s Most Powerful People 2016 (1)

Every year, Forbes published a list of the most influential people in the world. To compile the list, an assessment is made on the basis of 4 dimensions. First into account is the power over many people. Next comes the financial resource that is controlled by the candidate. The next criterion is the number of areas, in which the candidate has an impact. Finally, it is evaluated whether the applicant actively used its influence.

To calculate the final rankings, a panel of Forbes editors ranked all of the candidates in each of these four dimensions of power, and those individual rankings were averaged into a composite score. Last year’s list comes at a time of significant changes, and represents Forbes' best guess about who will matter in the year to come.

Finally, Forbes kindly warns, that not everybody will be happy with the results of rankings.

A hint for Friday's NFP

The US yesterday began to publish reports on the state of the employment market for March. The ADP report on the number of jobs in the private sector has already come out and was pleasantly surprised by its content. Thus, the indicator increased by 263 thousand against the forecast of 187 thousand and the previous indicator of 245 thousand (revised for a decrease from the first estimate of 298 thousand). The components of the ADP report say that employment is most noticeable in enterprises where the number of employees is up to 500 people.

Before the publication of the release, there were doubts that the private sector would repeat the fantastic figures of the previous month. But even with a review of the fall in February data and today's parameters, the picture looks more than optimistic - the business hires employees. This means that medium-sized enterprises and companies are not afraid of tomorrow.

The dispute over Gibraltar

Britain officially started the procedure for withdrawing from the EU last week, when the country applied for divorce to the European Council. Gibraltar is its overseas territory and is located between Spain and Africa. Theoretically, after Brexit, the territory should stay in the EU. Earlier, the former leader of the Conservatives, the head of the Republican Party of Great Britain, Michael Howard, expressed the opinion that the current Prime Minister Teresa May may start a war to defend Gibraltar, as Margaret Thatcher did towards the Falkland Islands claimed by Argentina in the early 80s. Theresa May herself said she would never agree with the decision on the disputed territory, in which the rights of the inhabitants of the territory would be violated.
Consultations on the ownership of Gibraltar are currently underway between the UK, the EU and Spain. This week on Friday, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, which may affect the rate of the pound, is expected. On the same day there will be important British macroeconomic statistics: the balance of foreign trade for February, as well as industrial production and the volume of construction.

The pound went up against the backdrop of rising activity in the services sector of Great Britain

On Wednesday, the pound rate rose to a maximum for the session after the report data recorded in March the maximum growth in the service sector of the UK for the three months of 2017.
At 08:50 GMT, the pair EUR/USD increased by 0.27% to 1.2473 from the previous value of 1.2435.
Markit reported that the index of business activity in the service sector (PMI) of Great Britain increased last month to 55.0 compared to 53.3 in February. This is the maximum after December 2016.
Economists predicted that the value of this index would be 53.5.
The report says that the rate of price increase has become the maximum for eight and a half years, which indicates a possible increase in inflation this year above 3%, as many economists predict.
The report also indicates that the growth rate of new jobs in the services sector has become minimal over the past seven months.
Together with data from similar studies on the manufacturing and construction sectors that were published this week, the latest report indicated the likelihood of a slowdown in economic growth as the consequences of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.

USD/CAD holds above 1.3372 support

The Canadian dollar, paired with the US dollar, is above the support level in the region of 1.3372 dollars. It is also seen a way out of the framework of the downward trend, which hints at further growth in the medium-term outlook to a resistance level of 1.3516 dollars.
But, do not forget that in the frames of speculative trading there can be a move in favor of the Canadian dollar. Now oil prices are strengthening at a steady pace, this, in turn, supports the Canadian dollar. In addition, on Friday, traders will pay attention to the publication of the March unemployment rate of Canada. If the indicator continues to decline, it will positively affect the Canadian dollar in pairs with other currencies.

ActivTrades: Trading the Markets

Lessons for the Modern Economy

The leading independant on-line broker ActivTrades offers to its clients excellent seminar, which will be held in Dubai: "Trading the Markets. Lessons for the Modern Economy". The event will be hosted by Dr. Lumsden-Groom alongside the ActivTrades team, which will duscuss how key economic events could affect your trading.

Whether you trade the GBP, EUR or major European indices and need to know how Brexit is likely to impact your trading, or you trade the USD and JPY and want to know how economic turmoil coupled with a change in leadership in the United States is likely to play out in the markets.

For detailed information and to register,  please follow this link.

Oil is down, showing the maximum quarterly decline from 2015

Oil prices declined on Friday, interrupting the three-day rally, due to fears of investors that the growth in reserves and drilling activity in the US is offsetting the decline in OPEC+ production.
By 14.29 GMT, futures for Brent crude fell by 0.68 percent to $52.60 per barrel.
Futures for American oil WTI by this time were traded at $50.11 per barrel, 0.48 percent lower than the previous closing.
Prices for both benchmarks fell by almost 7 percent compared to the previous quarter - this is the worst indicator since the end of 2015.
The growth of drilling activity and oil reserves in the US undermines the efforts of OPEC and non-cartel states that previously agreed to reduce oil production during the first half of the year by a total of 1.8 million barrels per day.
Nevertheless, despite the OPEC+ pact, the market remains oversaturated, which is why most market players believe that the agreement will be extended to the second half of 2017.
One of the reasons that OPEC and miners outside the club can extend the agreement is the desire to support oil prices.

The Fed can start reducing assets on the balance sheet this year

The Federal Reserve may begin to cut its balance from the current $4.5 trillion this year, sooner than many economists expect, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, said while giving the most comprehensive answer to the question, which bothers financial markets.
Most economists, interviewed by Reuters and the Fed, expect that the US central bank will begin to reduce its assets on its balance sheet next year, which would cause lower bond prices. Dudley's comments pushed the dollar's exchange rate on Friday's trading to a decline to the session low against the Japanese yen.
The Fed has accumulated a record volume of mortgage securities and US Treasury bonds after the financial crisis of 2007-2009 during three rounds of "quantitative easing", designed to stimulate investment, hiring workers and economic growth. The regulator does not buy new bonds, but replenishes its portfolio.

National Australia Bank reported a loss from euro after four months of waiting

National Australia Bank finally closed short positions in the single currency, opened in November last year, relying on the depreciation of the euro against the dollar below 1.00.

Hopes for a breakthrough at the lower limit of the consolidation pattern did not materialize and the bank closed short positions at the stop at 1.0900 with a loss of 318 points.

Let's remind that in November 2016 the euro dipped below the psychological level of 1.04 against the dollar, reviving hopes of eurobears for parity between the dollar and euro.