Wednesday, 14 March 2018

OPEC disputes

These days the oil segment has received a new food for thought, which makes players think about longer-term prospects for black gold. In particular, within OPEC there were contradictions in the question of the relevant price. Iran's oil minister believes that the cartel should support quotes at around $60 per barrel, explaining this by the fact that higher levels will lead to an even more active increase in production in the US shale fields. According to some estimates, if the average price of oil is $70, next year, Americans will produce 600 thousand barrels per day more.
Meanwhile, his Saudi colleague stands for oil at $70. Recall that the kingdom pursues its internal interests - the government needs larger oil revenues to finance large-scale economic reforms and IPO of the state oil giant Saudi Aramco. By the way, recently there were rumors that the initial public offering of the company's shares will be postponed to 2019, which means that Saudi Arabia will fight for higher prices longer than previously thought.
The emerging split in the cartel does not predict good news for energy prices. If Iran finds like-minded people in its initiative, which implies easing of restrictions in the deal, high discipline in the format of OPEC+ may be threatened. Then the level of $70 per barrel, above which Brent did not rise since the beginning of February, will become illusory for the market if the Saudis do not take measures that will strongly impress buyers or there will not be a large-scale supply disruption on a geopolitical basis.


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