How does begin the year for the EUR/USD?

From a fundamental point of view the difference in monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB will continue to set the trend in the currency pair. Possible rise in the currency pair is more likely to have corrective character.

Change can happen if the Fed fails to carry out their plans to raise interest rates to 1.40% at the end of 2016. Honestly, this is an increase of the rates every quarter (!!!).

From the weekly chart of the pair we see that the rise is limited to the middle Bollinger band, while the indicator consolidate. This shows, that price is now closed between several important levels.

First we need to monitor the area of ​​1.0500. For now, the pair can not break through this level and to test the next resistance. It is round level of 1.1100. Throughout 2015 the price always respected that level. So we need to keep track of what is happening around it.

If the price fails to break through those resistance levels, then the bears will take advantage of this weakness. Key level, that we need to monitor, is 1.0800. Overcoming it will give a great advantage to the bears.