Does EUR/USD made the peak for the year?

EUR/USD moved briefly above 1.1600 last Tuesday. Bears were activated and the price fell 2 figures. There was an interesting development on Friday, when the price tested the level 1.1464, but failed to overcome it. A Doji figure was formed as price closed just above 1.1400. This level is currently supporting the price. MACD continues to show the sword divergence with price, implying weakness in the bullish group.

Looking at the daily chart is still too early to classify the trend as changed in a bear because there are no more lower highs and lower lows. Support for this scenario will be if the price fail to make a peak above 1.1615 and a lower bottom than the 1.1216 will be formed.

From another perspective, if the price find support and move above 1.1464 we will have to prepare for the test of the last peak.

Seasonality in currency pair indicates that we can expect the formation of a peak in May. Of course this does not necessarily to happen.

By fundamental factors of great importance are the actions or rather inaction of the Fed. Some experts treated the softer tone as a preparation of markets for smoother increases in interest rates.

In this situation of conflicting factors (seasonality against changing fundament) it is better to follow what major market participants think about the situation. The report for the speculative positions shows that large market participants continue to reduce their short positions in euro. For the week before 03/05/2016 net short speculative positions reached minus 23 619 000 contracts.