Calmness before the storm

On Tuesday, the weakening of the US currency has slowed against the background of market hopes that the result of the vote on Britain's membership will be positive to remain in the EU. The main beneficiary of the currency markets, as expected, was the pound, which flew for the first two days of the week with 4.21%, offsetting not only all fall from the beginning of the month, but adding another 1.53%.
Recent polls over the weekend showed that the balance in the forthcoming vote on Brexit leans in favor of the desire to remain in the EU, and that was reason enough to rally the sterling, as well as strong demand for risky assets. But despite this optimism, the uncertainty in this sensitive issue is still present, as the gap between the supporters of the status quo and Brexit is not too big and things can change on Thursday.
In my opinion, the activity in the markets on Thursday will slow down significantly as probable positive result from voting as a whole is played.
In general, if we look closely at the picture on the currency market, the local weakening of the US dollar late last week and earlier this week did not led to the formation of stable trends. Currency pairs with the USD simply added to the latter and moved to the opposite side of the already existing ranges. Counting on change of the overall picture in the near future is not justified, and the main to blame this situation is Fed, which does not give clear signals, that we should not be waiting better times for a growth of rates, bit still does not increase them, contributing to nervousness in the markets and an increased level of volatility.
As for today's speech from ECB President M. Draghi, it is also unlikely to report anything new and significant, which would cause the markets to be more energetic, so the main theme remains Brexit.