Saturday 2 July 2016

Bank of England may "soften" in August

"Brexit" made adjustments not only in the behavior of the world markets, but also in the course of monetary policy of key central banks. So, now there are few left, who believe, that the Fed will increase rates later this year. More then that - it's began to talk, that the US regulator perhaps even "gives back up" and would lower the rates.
However, the exit of Britain, of course, concerns the Bank of England in a first place. Mark Carney has already begun to prepare the markets, that during the summer period, the regulator can go to "some" easing of monetary policy. To the next meeting remain exactly two weeks. Most likely, in July, the regulator will pave the way for launching additional incentives at the next meeting. During this time, the authorities will try to assess the potential damage from "Brexit" and to identify the extent of mitigation.
For the UK economy this "divorce" definitely will not pass unnoticed. One of the most painful losses could be massive reduction of investments in the country, which are very needed. This will be particularly noticeable for electric power industry, which requires modernization and, consequently, the participation of investors. This threat is quite real, because now a number of companies indicates the reluctance to engage in new projects or intentions to cut investments in the existing ones.
Investment factor served as one of the reasons that all three major rating agencies downgraded the UK together with a negative forecast. Probably, in such circumstances, the Bank of England will have no choice - the economy will need a support from the regulator.
In the light of these prospects, which at this stage look not rosy, in long term the pound is likely to remain under pressure. Therefore, market participants may choose to sell GBP/USD on growth. Now quotes remain under pressure, not being able to test the 1.33 mark, not to mention the closure of the gap, formed as a result of the collapse of the pound to 31-year low the previous week.


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