Sunday 6 November 2016

BoE bonfired the pound up

The decision of the UK Supreme Court that the government can not take responsibility for launching the procedures for Brexit without the approval of the Parliament as well as the changed course of policy of the Bank of England allowed "bulls" on the GBP/USD to withdraw from the prolonged consolidation. The participants of Forex market are talking about soft Brexit, as well as the possibility of transferring it from March 2017 to a later date. This has had a serious support to the sterling.
The results of the June referendum, the emphasis on the BoE monetary expansion and the threat of an economic slowdown under the influence of Brexit weights hung on the feet of sterling. By late autumn, it becomes clear that the euphoria of the "bears" on the GBP/USD over policy is comparable with similar feelings of "bulls" on the S&P500 due to the potential victory of Hillary Clinton in the presidential election in the United States. The change in the balance of power has turned back in the polls for US stocks, as all we've seen. It is time for pound sellers also to moderate their appetites.
However, much more interesting is the fact that Mark Carney and his colleagues believed that the 6% devaluation of the pound in October will lead to acceleration of inflation of 0.7% in 2017. The forecast for CPI was increased to 2.7% for the period 2017-2018. At the same time the central bank has emphasized the change of repo rate in either direction, depending on the economic outlook. Thus, if inflation is expected to grow faster (and in the opinion of a number of banks and investment companies, it is able to rise to 3.5-4% in the next year), the BoE will be forced to tighten monetary policy, which is a serious "bullish" driver for the pound.


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