Tuesday 5 December 2017

Emerging markets indices catch up with their currencies

Rising indices in emerging markets have finally made them catch up to a certain extent in the growth of currencies.
The relative performance of the MSCI Inc. index since the beginning of 2007, before the financial crisis, shows that the growth of the indexes lags behind that of the developing currencies by only five percentage points, compared to 30 points in the beginning of 2016.
And while the shares and currencies of the developing countries are moving toward their best year since 2009, the rise in the indices is more than three times that of the currencies.
Shares performed better than currencies with more than 20 percentage points in 2007, before falling over six times more than currencies in the next year of financial crisis.
The indices offset some of their lag in 2009 and 2010, but the gap widened again in 2015 to begin narrowing in the next 2106.
Since the end of 2006, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen 23%, comparing to 28% rise of the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index.
Concerns that the Fed may continue with the policy of increase in interest rates may reduce cravings for high-risk assets and strengthen the negative correlation between the currencies of developing countries and the interest rates on US government bonds.


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