Saturday 18 March 2017

The B20 Minfin Summit is the next risk factor for the dollar

Sales of US currency slowed on Friday. The markets have practically played the insufficiently tough rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, having switched attention to the G20 summit at the level of finance ministers.
EUR/USD reached 5-week highs in the region of 1.0780, receiving a fresh impetus to growth on ECB's "hawkish" comments by E.Novotny, who hinted on the possibility of raising the deposit rate before the expiration of the asset buy-back program. Having reached this resistance, the euro attracted a profit-taking and went into negative territory.
Now the main currency pair will wait for signals from the G20 summit. And here, we must admit, there are downward risks for the dollar. Participants in the foreign exchange market fear that Washington will again oppose a strong national currency, in which the Trump administration is not interested right now. In addition, in the draft copy of the G20 there are hints of adherence to the goals of preventing competitive devaluation of currencies.
If these risks are confirmed, on Monday the dollar can expect a new wave of sales against most competitors. In this case, EUR/USD could break above the key area of ​​1.08, spurring growth. And USD/JPY, which is struggling to stay close to 113.00, will lose its psychological support first and go to 112.00.


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