Wednesday 27 September 2017

Investors forget quickly

Investors tend to forget quickly. Or at least most of them... It seems as if everyone has forgotten what the Fed's several asset redemption programs have brought after the financial crisis.
Generally speaking, up to around 300% for the broad US S&P 500 index.
The question arises why investors are not afraid of the announcement in the start of a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. Or the opposite of incentive programs.
At its meeting last week, the Monetary Policy Committee, fully expected by investors, kept the level of interest unchanged. From there, however, they said they are planning to start off with a cut of the record $45 trillion balance.
US indices are at levels close to their record in history.
In addition, there are still many ambiguities on the horizon. And they are related to the dangers of a military conflict between the United States and North Korea, the imminent rise in the US debt ceiling, the political uncertainty of the elections in Germany and Washington, etc.
We can not avoid the warning of the Nobel Prize winner, Robert Schiller, who said the US indexes were very similar to the situation before the last 13 collapses, historically.
What will happen, though, if Trump fails to "deliver" the promised reduction in tax rates? Will it not turn into the "black swan" that will trigger a new, more serious adjustment for the indexes in over 20%?
This is yet to be seen very soon, probably this autumn...




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