Thursday 19 April 2018

Deutsche Bank: Inflation is the biggest threat at the moment

Forget the geopolitical tensions, the strikes in Syria, or the trade wars between the US and China. You have a much greater reason to worry if you invest in stock markets. This is warned by the experts of the leading German bank - Deutsche Bank.
Traditional inflation measures in the US show a sustained rise in consumer price inflation in recent months, following an anemic price increase nearly a decade after the end of the recent financial crisis.
At a time when the Fed has steadily upgraded the economy and the economy is recovering at an unsatisfactory pace, uncertainty has conquered inflation, which is the focus of almost all investors.
We are waiting for inflation, literally over the last nine years - since the end of the recession in 2009. Maybe you will ask yourself the question - Why is it now? We have not seen inflation over the past few years, so what has changed today? - commented experts.
And the answer to this question can be found in the weak US dollar. The dollar index was moving at a 90-point high for most of this year after falling freely over the past year.
This was a natural consequence of fiscal expansion over the last decade, which has led to a overheating of the US economy, a narrow labor market and price pressures, in light of a possible trade war between the US and China.
Expectations for higher inflation are consistent with consensus expectations. About 82% of fund managers, gave their opinion in a Bank of America poll earlier this month, expect inflation to accelerate next year. This is just below the pre-crisis levels of 86%.
According to the Labor Ministry, consumer prices have risen 2.4% y/y last month, or their fastest growth in 12 months. By abolishing volatile food and fuel prices, inflation stood at 2.1%.


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