OPEC kept its forecast for global oil demand, reduced production in May

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept the forecast for world oil demand in 2016 at 94.18 million barrels per day. This is stated in the June OPEC report. Thе forecast in demand for oil in 2016 compared to 2015 is also maintained at 1.2 million barrels per day.
The oil market has become closer to the balance between demand and supply earlier than expected - due to unplanned supply disruptions from Canada and Nigeria, said OPEC in their statement. The organization expects that the oversupply will continue to decline.
Oil managed to close in positive territory last week and stay for Brent up than 50 per barrel, while the same level of US WTI was not kept. In addition to the wave of the strengthening dollar, which started on Thursday, the oil is under pressure also by the statistics.
Oil remains in an upward channel, and just returns to the levels at the beginning of the month as part of a short-term correction.

Trend growth in January can be considered broken after a decline to 48.00-48.50. A drop below would start a new downwards trend in the next few months. Important support levels in this way, able to trigger further collapse (if they would be overcomed) will become 50-day moving average (now at 46.90) and the 200-day (now at 42.90). We must not forget also about the level that separates bullish from bearish market. In the last week it was 53.03 level.
20% drop from the peak is at 42.40. This is the level of "withdrawing" of medium-term long positions. If oil loses 20%, it would no longer limited to these losses, and it will go further down.
Thus, the development of the downward trend can be separated into several stages with following important support levels: 48.00, 47.00, 43.00. The area between them seem more "soft" - without serious obstacles.

Euro/dollar consolidated at the level of 1.13

The eurobulls made their first attempt to go on plus, but it failed. After falling to the level of 1.1289 euro/dollar has updated the session low. Now, the European currency is making a second attempt to win back the daily losses and get out in the positive region. On Friday the euro against the dollar closed at 1.1250.
There aren't especially fresh reasons to sell the pair, as well as to stabilize, but the dollar is feeling quite confident. Next week will be at least tense. Good statistical data from the labor market last week supported the US currency. Statistics on Thursday showed that the number of claims for unemployment benefits for the week decreased to 264 thousand. The forecast was for 270 thousand. Optimists in the dollar cheered. Step by step, the the market interest to the US currency is returning, which is logical in the run-up to the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
Now investors preferences are confused about each other. Based on market futures on Fed's decision on interest rates, 2-3% expect its growth on 15 June. Another 23-24% believe that it is more logical to increase the rate in July, to have time to gather all the necessary confirmation in the form of statistics and other data. In general, the latter hypothesis looks reasonable, especially since the labor market gives good signals.

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Morgan Stanley: USD/JPY can break through 105.00 and drop to 98.00

The fundamental basis of trade in the forex market currently remains negative for risky assets. This allows to count on further strengthening of the yen, write analysts at Morgan Stanley. Japan is trying to increase its fiscal stimulus.
The yen strengthened on behalf of cash flows related to hedging or insurance against the risk of unfavorable changes in the exchange rate. Here the difference between real interest rates in the US and Japan, in fact, plays an important role. As well as the set of tools in the arsenal of the Bank of Japan to weaken the yen seems scarce, there is a significant risk that the Japanese currency may strengthen significantly from current levels, they added.
The position of the bank suggests a bullish trend for the yen amid expectations of further reducing appetite for risky assets. The bank believed that the level of 111.50 seems durable and is currently unbreakable resistance.
Currently, the bank analysts expect that the support level at 105.00 on USD/JPY will be breached and the price will head towards the global target of 98.00.
According to them the yen could succeed strengthening before the Bank of Japan begins to review the possibility of progressive monetary and credit policy, which will go beyond the current strategy of quantitative easing.

BNP Paribas: EUR/USD may return to 1.16

The tone of the last speech of Janet Yellen as a whole remains optimistic, however, she did not fail to note that the report on the labor market in the US on Friday has raised new questions about the country's economic prospects.

Strategists of BNP Paribas doubt that after unemployment report on Friday will be a recent increase in US interest rates by FOMC in June or in July. Short-term US interest rates may continue to decline if the following data are weak.

That leaves the dollar vulnerable and at the same time demand for USD/JPY will likely be supported by the taking of new stimulus measures in Japan, EUR/USD is on its way to return to 1.16 dollars. The next important statistics for the US is next Tuesday when there will be published the figures for retail sales in May.

The pound jumped 1% on the results of another poll on Brexit

On Tuesday, the pound jumped by about 1% against the dollar after an opinion poll in the UK showed a slight advantage of the supporters of the country to remain in the European Union.
GBP/USD pair peaked at 1.4460 the day before, and is now trading at 1.4551, up with 1% today.
Sterling also strengthened against the euro, EUR/GBP pair fell 0.98% to 0.7787.
The pound strengthened after an opinion poll published in the "Times" magazine on Monday showed that the number of EU supporters has exceeded the number of voting for Brexit.
At the same time, another poll, published in Monday's "Daily Telegraph" showed that most are going to vote for Brexit on the Referendum.
Meanwhile, Betfair data on Tuesday showed that 72% of Britons would vote for Britain to remain in the block of 28 countries against 70% earlier in the day.

Dollar remains near one-month lows against rivals

On Tuesday, the dollar fell against other major currencies after on Monday Federal Reserve System Chairman Janet Yellen disappointed markets with the fact that in her speech she did not mention the timing of the next rate raise. Speaking on Monday, Yellen said the central bank does not intend to raise interest rates, while the US economic outlook remains uncertain. Yellen also expects the US recovery will continue, but did not specify the possible timing of the next rate hike. Weak data excluded the possibility of increasing of the rate by Fed in June, so investors have removed their expectations at a later date before the end of this year. The EUR/USD is stable at 1.1347 near three-week high 1.1392 on Monday.

Australian dollar has received support

Since the beginning of the last week AUD was showing sensitivity to Australian statistics - we could sense market uncertainty about the future of monetary policy on the continent. So the Building Approvals index, which came out better than expected - 3.0% (vs. forecasts for  -3.1%) led to the growth of the Australian dollar by 25 points.
The growth of the economy for the first quarter also supported the Australian dollar, data came out higher than expected: 1.1% compared with 0.8% forecast. Data registered record high.
If we take an annualized basis, the Australian economy has added 3.1% compared to expectations of 2.8%. Exports rose by 4.4%, which added 1% to GDP growth.
Such indicators may affect the RBA in their future plans of easing monetary policy through lower interest rates.
Reverse effect on the Australian dollar may have only USD with its labor market data, released on Friday.

"Kiwi" is trying to fly!

It lives in New Zealand, such flightless kiwi bird. In honor of it on the trader slang called national currency: "kiwi» = NZD. While the majority of the commodity currencies are experiencing some pressure due to a general strengthening of the US dollar and a slight rebound of oil prices from peaks, our kiwi bird tries to fly.
Since Tuesday NZD/USD pair is trading at the support of the moving averages of 20 and 50 periods and tests the resistance around 0.6805. Index Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone (above 65), but shows no signs of reversal.
While the support at 0.6735 is not broken, the pair opened up to the way towards 0.6845 and further to 0.6890-04 resistance zone. Indicators in H4 at the moment give buy signals. Recommendations for today: buy at the current quote [0.6802/06], but, preferably, not higher than 0.6810 (very aggressive) with the aim of 0.6835 near and more distant in the area of ​​0.6890.

The third wave of devaluation of the yuan is in full swing

It seems that the world is on the verge of another currency "war". Chinese Yuan in early summer renewed the lows again in pair with the US dollar, of course, not independently, but under the strict guidance of the People's Bank of China. China's regulator returned to its controlled currency devaluation to reduce the negative impact of the massive outflow of capital from the country. During 2015 China lost about $500 billion, about the same number are expected in the current year. This is "hot" money, which are present in some amount in each developing economy, but returned to the owner with the expansion of the spread in interest rates. Now that China stimulates its economy, while the US Federal Reserve is ready to toughen the terms of monetary policy, the currencies of developing economies may again come under pressure.