Do not believe the noice around the US dollar

Fed's communication strategy suffers from a reputation problem. This week it has been an officials hawkish Fed statement, but the US dollar and, more importantly, the yield curve of US bonds, have failed to reflect the likelihood of a September rate hike. Markets assessed the probability of a rate hike by 20% in September, and in December - by 45%. Of course, markets do not trust the wording of the Fed (they do not have the reasons, given earlier statements). The head of the FED Bank of New York Dudley said, that the US economy remains healthy and it is supported by the labor market and wage growth. He mentioned, that the markets are underestimating the likelihood of the Fed to tighten monetary policy. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Kaplan suggested, that the Fed is still possible to raise rates. These statements seem to set the stage for the future statements of Fed's Chairman Yellen in Jackson Hole, signaling the impending rate increase.
The sudden change in expectations would surely catch the markets by surprise, quickly raising the yield curve of US bonds and giving upward momentum for the dollar. However, I believe that analysts, who are calling for a rate hike, do not take into account the global context and overestimate small by historical standards, improvements in the US economy. Thus, the current economic momentum in the US, seem to stable only in comparison with the extremely ambiguous world data. In addition, increasing rates now in low and falling profitability in the global markets will lead to exceeding the targets, set by the tightening of monetary policy, since capital will rush in US assets.
I remain skeptical about the dollar rally and consider the prevailing bullish momentum better like closing long positions in illiquid markets (their importance is exaggerated), than like a change of moods.