Saturday 20 August 2016

Euro will not go much higher - technical view

The dollar index, reaching down to the support of 94 p., and pushing away from it, still looks like a correction after a sharp peak and like a closing of the weekly short positions.
EUR/USD moved from 1.1360 - weekly maximums.
However, it serves as a correction because the pair has not reached the significant resistance. Now the pair is in the middle of the trading range 1,1220-1,1420. And technically the uptrend may reach the upper limit. This zone, approximately at 1.1425, may stand as a very strong obstacle for a growth. In this level stands the price reversal down, caused by the referendum in the UK, and here is the pulse point of the downward trend. Therefore, it makes sense to consider selling with target 1,1225-1,12 when reaching the zone.
Conversely, in the case of approaching the support of 1,1225, EUR/USD may turn up from the broken trend line. Only consolidation below this boundary will provide the technical possibility of a further weakening of the pair to 1.1130.
Obviously, the closest strong driver may be a performance of Janet Yellens at the Fed conference in Jackson Hole on 26 August. Prior to this, the most probable is the side, range of movement of the pair.
In general, I keep my "bearish" view on future prospects for the euro. Therefore, deals from these levels are preferred.



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