Dollar ends the week positive

After yesterday's profit-taking the dollar with new forces resumed climbing. The currency already completely won back the losses incurred on Thursday, and ends the week in a decent positive territory against major competitors. The main driver for purchases of USD is expectations for the US rates. This week the likelihood of raising the cost of lending has reached 70% and is held close to this value.

Against this background, EUR/USD this week slipped by more than 1.5%. During the last three days the pair is actively testing the 1.10 mark and currently is approaching lows from ​​the end of July at 1.0985, thereby violating the integrity of the psychological level, and signaling a high probability of breakdown in the preservation of positive mood of the USD.
As the fresh release from the United States shows, in September retail sales rose by 0.6%. More importantly, the sales index excluding autos jumped by 0.5% against the forecast of 0.4%, rebounding after falling by 0.1%. Positive signals from the consumer sector can support the arguments in favor of the normalization of policy on one of the next Fed meeting.

Now players are shifting their attention to the forthcoming speech of Fed's chairman J. Yellen. From her rhetoric will depend not only the motion vector of the dollar pairs under the end of the week, but the general mood of the financial markets on Monday. In the case of tightening of Yellen's tone, the expectations for rasing rates may dramatically increase, and the dollar will be in demand. If the head of the central bank will adhere to the precautionary and "soft" tone, risky assets will be supported across the board.