Friday 14 October 2016

GBP - keep on selling

GBP/USD should be sold for two reasons. First, the published on Wednesday FOMC meeting minutes did not disappoint investors, because they was not negative, but rather pointed to the need to raise interest rates. In the current environment, where the trend is gaining momentum in the dollar (the dollar index USDX basket is now at the maximum for the last 7 months) the absence of bad news from the US is in itself positive. Secondly, strengthening the greenback put pressure on the commodity market instruments, primarily for oil, as the value of all commodities are denominated in the US currency. Brent crude oil can not confidently fix to a maximum of the current year at $52.99/barrel and in the near future we can expect a reduction of quotations to the psychological level of $50/barrel, which will increase the pressure on the sterling. Against this background, during the day we should opened short position on the growth of quotations in the area of 1.2200/1.2250 and take profit at the level of 1.2120.


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