Wednesday 25 July 2018

Trump/Yen, Yen/Trump

The Central Bank of Japan apparently took seriously Trump's warning to its main trading partners - not to try to manipulate exchange rates.
According to well-known sources, the central bank of Japan is said to change its monetary policy. The explanation is - to make it more effective. Market participants, however, fear that its preparing for normalization is becoming a reality.
And this led to a fall of the Japanese Nikkei 225 by nearly 300 points and a serious appreciation of the yen. The dollar, which reached trading levels of 113 yen in the past week, traded at levels 111.18 on Tuesday evening.
Indeed, the dollar marked its largest decline against the main currencies for three weeks. The dollar index lost 0.8% of its value on Friday, with the loss of 1% against the yen, the US currency declining 0.7% against the euro.
The bond repurchase program was launched by the head of the Japanese bank in the distant 2013. The aim was to raise inflation.
Now, however, according to experts, the Japanese central bank has to make a lot of effort to persuade Trump's administration that it does not artificially lower the exchange rate of the yen against the dollar.
On the other hand, it appears that 2% inflation targeting the bank is an unattainable goal, even against the backdrop of serious monetary stimulus. Buying bonds, however, has led to an increase in government debt of over 40% over the past five years. At the same time, the goals of the Japanese central bank do not seem to be achieved. And this largely points to the ineffectiveness of the bank's policy.
Interest rates on 20-year Japanese government bonds also rose 6 basis points to 0.535 percent, moving away from their 18-month minimum at 0.475 percent earlier this month.
It has to be mentioned that the currency war is already a fact, as a continuation of the trade between the US and China. On Friday, President Donald Trump accused the major trading partners of the US of manipulating their exchange rates and thus receiving unfair competitive advantages.
We can recall that the trade war between the two leading economies started earlier this month, with the imposition of reciprocal duties on goods for $34 billion.


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