Wednesday 18 July 2018

Why was the dollar spared by the trade war? (2)

Last month, the ECB reaffirmed its non-aggressive policy, which helped renew the dollar's appreciation. The euro fell 0.7 percent against the dollar at the ECB meeting on June 14. Then the dollar rose the most against the euro in two years.
The outlook for the US economy is the best among developed economies, according to Marvin Loch, chief strategist at BNY Mellon. The Fed remains the most aggressive in its tone, compared to the other central banks around the world. Since the beginning of the year, the Reserve has raised the interest rate twice, and is expected to make two more hikes until the end of the year.
At the same time, the ECB is unlikely to raise interest rates by the end of the year, barely stopping the stimulus for that period.
In addition, credibility among bullish investors for the euro is diminishing as a result of the emerging trade war between the US and Europe. Experts point out that serious threats to foreign exchange markets may be an extraordinarily high short-term growth in the US economy, which would trigger a further strong appreciation of the US currency.
Investors continue to worry about the minimum slope in the interest rate curve, which continues to raise fears of an impending recession.


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